Comments on: In the Year 2020… http://technologizer.com/2008/12/15/in-the-year-2020/ Reviews, News, and Opinion About Personal Technology by Harry McCracken & Friends Mon, 22 Mar 2010 00:42:34 +0000 http://wordpress.com/ hourly 1 By: The future of the internet lies in mobile devices | socialmediainfluence.com http://technologizer.com/2008/12/15/in-the-year-2020/comment-page-1/#comment-6254 The future of the internet lies in mobile devices | socialmediainfluence.com Tue, 16 Dec 2008 10:32:40 +0000 http://technologizer.com/?p=5410#comment-6254 [...] Oswald at Technologizer thinks the chaps at Pew are being a tad conservative in their predictions: “I fully expect [...] [...] Oswald at Technologizer thinks the chaps at Pew are being a tad conservative in their predictions: “I fully expect [...]

]]> By: KeithF http://technologizer.com/2008/12/15/in-the-year-2020/comment-page-1/#comment-6217 KeithF Mon, 15 Dec 2008 22:41:18 +0000 http://technologizer.com/?p=5410#comment-6217 I read a brilliant article a long time ago about how these predictions come about and how every era gets the forecasts totally wrong because they continue to extrapolate the progress that has most recently been made. In the 30's, 40's and 50's, great strides had been made in transportation, from popularizing autos to the rise of commercial air travel, to NASA and so on. Therefore the sci fi of the day was about ever faster transport. Space travel. Warp speed. Etc. Now in the 70's-2000's, we are riding a wave of progress in computing, so the sci fi is more focused around computing and robotics, but a lot of it is actually on Earth--Neuromancer, Snow Crash, the Matrix, Terminator, etc. So when will that play out and a new area of progress come to the forefront? And which area will it be? Perhaps anti-aging, cure for cancer, gene therapy, eugenics of child selection, regeneration of limbs, regeneration of dinasaurs, whatever. All of these are currently under development also, and whichever breaks through will again make today's predictions of the future seem quaint and naive. I read a brilliant article a long time ago about how these predictions come about and how every era gets the forecasts totally wrong because they continue to extrapolate the progress that has most recently been made.

In the 30’s, 40’s and 50’s, great strides had been made in transportation, from popularizing autos to the rise of commercial air travel, to NASA and so on. Therefore the sci fi of the day was about ever faster transport. Space travel. Warp speed. Etc.

Now in the 70’s-2000’s, we are riding a wave of progress in computing, so the sci fi is more focused around computing and robotics, but a lot of it is actually on Earth–Neuromancer, Snow Crash, the Matrix, Terminator, etc.

So when will that play out and a new area of progress come to the forefront? And which area will it be? Perhaps anti-aging, cure for cancer, gene therapy, eugenics of child selection, regeneration of limbs, regeneration of dinasaurs, whatever. All of these are currently under development also, and whichever breaks through will again make today’s predictions of the future seem quaint and naive.

]]> By: Gregg http://technologizer.com/2008/12/15/in-the-year-2020/comment-page-1/#comment-6210 Gregg Mon, 15 Dec 2008 21:06:17 +0000 http://technologizer.com/?p=5410#comment-6210 I think we'll be well on our way to the tech singularity (http://singularity.com/). I think we’ll be well on our way to the tech singularity (http://singularity.com/).

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