Admittedly I’m no Michael Pachter when it comes to foretelling the future of video games, but with Microsoft exec Robbie Bach saying that we won’t see a new Xbox 360 for a while, the temptation to speculate is too overwhelming. So join me as I wildly predict when the next round of consoles will come along.
Let’s start with the base assumption that consoles have a five year life span on average. That’s been the case with every generation except the Nintendo Entertainment System (six years in the U.S.), the Playstation 2 (six years in the U.S.) and the original Xbox (four years). No console has lasted seven years in North America without being replaced by the next generation. Keep that in mind for later.
Speaking of history, Bach’s comments aren’t the first of their kind. In 2007, Mindy Mount, Microsoft’s entertainment division CFO, told Reuters she sees potential for the Xbox 360 to last beyond five years. The waters get muddy here, because it’s not clear if she envisions a lifespan that terminates or coexists with the next generation. But it’s not just Microsoft that’s looking to extend their current console’s lifespan. Nintendo head Satoru Iwata said in 2007 that the company won’t consider a new console until it can transform entertainment once again. “But today’s situation is such that we are not desperate for any new weapons at all,” he said.
Meanwhile, Sony is at the bottom of the heap. The early start after a four year life cycle could serve them well, as it did for Microsoft, even if it carries some shame in admitting the PS3 was sort of a flop.
One last thing: Bach said that “coming up with something that’s faster and prettier isn’t going to be sufficient.” This suggests that Microsoft — and Sony, if it doesn’t want to get left behind — will go the way of the Wii with something new to attract untapped markets. If Sony will be the first to market with a new console, Microsoft will probably come in second to compete with the Wii.
Recession is the wild card. Conservative estimates place the unemployment peak at early 2010, which means holiday consumer spending could be healthy that year. More likely, things will be in full swing by 2011. Will all this in mind, here goes nothing:
Sony will be first to release it’s console in 2010, four years after the PS3 reached North America. This will ensuring a full lineup of games for the 2011 holidays, when Microsoft will launch its next generation (six years after the Xbox 360’s release. Nintendo could break the seven year mark, because the company so hell-bent on innovation that it could very well be 2012 when they release something completely new and blow the other two companies out of the water. On the other hand, Wii owners buy less software than Xbox 360 owners, so Nintendo may want a refresh after all. I say 2011 for the Big N as well.
January 13th, 2009 at 2:29 pm
I think it’s certainly clear with the PS3, and probably so with the Xbox 360, that hardware limitations are not having an appreciable impact on the gaming content, but it’s simply a function of continued evolution on the software side. The PS3 is more future-proofed by its Blu-ray drive and presence of a hard drive on every console; the Xbox could conceivably be hampered by DVD storage density unless network delivery of primary content is deemed feasible. The Wii, on the other hand, will likely be hamstrung by its lack of HD and sufficient graphics horsepower. As more PS3 and Xbox 360 content emerges which competes with the Wii’s family-friendly content it may begin to lose ground.
January 13th, 2009 at 2:41 pm
Jared, you’re not Mike Pacter, you’re better than Mike Pacter! :D
January 13th, 2009 at 10:08 pm
My money is the next big game system from Sony will be a new PSP with a touch screen, and a smaller form factor.
The PS3 hardware is fine. Launching a new portable game console will re invogorate the Sony gaming brand, which should peripherally help the PS3.
The IPod touch is eating this market by itself right now. Small, affordable wifi device that is good for gaming. The lack of buttons though makes it it really imperfect as a gaming device. A PSP touch could better deliver.
It’d be tempting to add more feature, but they would do well to try to keep the price, and form factor, down.
There are already a LOT of people using the web browser on the PSP already. The control on it is good enough to effectively navigate an on screen keyboard, and its rich display goes a long way.
I’d love to see them ditch their current propietary format for the device. Let user’s download content OTA. Sell games over a DRM’d SD cards, but let the device use the same hardware to read regular SD cards.
Get flash working on it and you could have one of the best mobile browsers out there.
If we were going further into my wishlist I’d say throw a standard Sun J2ME JVM on it so you can download your standard cell phone apps, IM, mail etc.
But all this can be in later versions, first they just have to put a touch screen on your standard PSP and ship it again :)
January 14th, 2009 at 3:51 am
We are selling 3G Apple iPhones 8GB and 16GB for US$400 and US$500 respectively.
They are all Brand New/Unlocked and in the latest firmware version..
We also give good discounts for more than a unit purchase and also free items..
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BUY 2 UNITS 3G 16GB FOR JUST US$900
(INCLUDING A FREE IPHONE)
OLD GENERATION IPHONES
Apple iPhone 4GB…US$200
Apple iPhone 8GB…US$300
Apple iPhone 16GB..US$350
And the PS3 and XBOX 360 in stock also.
WE ALSO HAVE NOKIA PHONES, HTC PHONES, AND OTHER BRANDS OF MOBILES INCLUDING IPODS.
Email: supreme.iphones@hotmail.com
supreme.iphoneworld@gmail.com
February 20th, 2009 at 9:45 am
There is supposed to be an Xbox 580 for 2011.
February 24th, 2009 at 7:24 am
cool!!!!!!!!!!!!!! i cant wait but i think you could of added what the names of the systems were going to be. you would not get sued. im the son of a lawyer and my dad said its alright so just tell the names and you will get more veiwers and comments
June 19th, 2009 at 8:20 am
a new sega would be nice, the console wars need a need contender.
xbox vs. ps and nintendo vs. sega
besides i think companys should focus on cross system online multiplayer that would be cool