One method to discern this would be to go back to when the pc was in its infancy commercially and determine the dynamics of the industry and rate and cost of succeeding replacements in the marketplace. Presumably, due to inherent economic laws, the curve must be rising more steeply in each succeeding “shorter” runs. My own theory is merely complementary to this, namely: “All systems eventually integrate and consolidate over time.” The primary issue being: how long in time does it(succession) eventually/actually take !? {Q: Does “succession” necessarily imply “success?)

My favorite illustration of this concerns the U.S. military organization. I served in the Army as an non-career ROTC officer.However, I couldn’t understand why we had separate armed forces (i.e., performing duplicative missions with different equipment). Thus the Marines and Army had separate ground and air forces. Although the Marines had jets and helicopters, while the Army had fixed wing and helicopters. The Navy has air forces and ships. So does the Coastguard, to a much lesser extent. I always thought that the Coastguard should be folded into and absorbed by the Navy and the various missions carried out within that structure. Similarily, the Army and Marine ground forces should be integrated [in Vietnam, e.g., the Army & Marines conducted joint ops together on many occasions in I. Corps!] The Air Force would absorb all of the other branches flight operations and equipment, with duplication eventually eliminated. Well, to shorten the analysis, I understand that the DOD finally came to this conclusion and, eventually, there’ll be only one ground, air and naval force. “Dat’s” ’cause all systems integrate and consolidate over time! No use “fighten-it.” But stupidity reigns by either ignoring or procrastinating about it. Forget the various prides and prejudices between the services!

In closing, one other area badly needs to heed this immutable rule: GOVERNMENT at all levels. In Minnesota, for example,where I reside, we literally have scores of different governments: parks,mosquito control districts, watersheds; cities, towns;counties, metro governmental jurisdictions (with both supervisory and direct powers). We have 90-some counties in this smaller-sized state. Counties are running out of money trying to duplicate systems of separate judicial jurisdictions. And even cities still have their own separate judicial systems! Where are the supposed expert system analysts pointing out and demanding implementation of these immutable scientific principles!? ONE WORLD GOVERNMENT: you better believe IT! It’s just a matter of time!!

Thanks for giving me unlimited space to ventilate!!

Sincerely,

Alan D. Harris
E.P., MN 55344

I love the idea of using my blackberry curve, G1 or even IPhone has the input device for my PC, TV or mediacenter. (I want a trackball and a keyboard.). I’d love to see bluetooth become ubiquitous on PC’s.

Similarly I’d like to use the same A2DP Bluetooth headset for my phone, ipod touch, media center and PC, being able to easily switch which Audio channel I’m listening too. (Ideally I’d like to be able to listen to multiple bluetooth audio channels at once, and just adjust their volume according to which is more interesting at the moment.).

So, for a lot of users, I see the smartphone just being an important part of a larger web of gadgets.

For some, especially many Japanese, the smartphone is their primary computing device. So to some extent your prediction has come true.

The PC was basically the only device capable of doing the many tasks it did. That era is gone, now those tasks are increasingly being taken by our phone, our data storage device, and our high end game console. Or better yet, the task is shared. Some emails we deal with completely on our phone, some we read the subject only and put of dealing with the mail more thoroughly until we get to a PC.

And considering how most smartphones don’t have a full-size keyboard, I really doubt the PC should be relegated so quickly to the garbage heaps. You look at power and fail to realize there is user interface that needs to be looked at.

Maybe a smartphone dock would resolve this need for real-sized KBs, mice and screens, but I can’t see people spending that kind of money on office workers, especially the vast majority that do not travel.

By the way, did you ever predict we would all be tele-commuting before the end of the 20th century as well?