Among the many questions that Windows 7′s imminent release is prompting is this: Will it result in fewer Windows users deciding to switch to Macs, thereby halting the slow erosion in Windows’ market share that we’ve seen during the Vista era? So far, there’s no consensus on wht’s likely to happen:a
- At Computerworld, Gregg Keizer reported on an analyst’s prediction that Windows 7′s release wouldn’t hurt Mac sales, and might even help them;
- BetaNews’s Joe Wilcox says the analyst’s analysis is wrongheaded, and that he thinks Windows 7 will put a dent in Apple’s growing market share;
- Daring Fireball’s John Gruber concurs with some of Wilcox’s take but says that the competition between Windows and Macs is pretty indirect;
- Peter Burrows of BusinessWeek interviewed Apple’s Phil Schiller, who contends that Windows 7 presents a good opportunity to sell more Macs, since buying a new Mac is easier than upgrading a Windows XP machine to Windows 7. (Um, wouldn’t you need to back up and restore data and reinstall apps if you were moving to the Mac, too?)
I’m not going to predict how Windows 7′ release will impact Mac sales–hey, making no predictions is the best way to avoid making boneheaded ones–but a few thoughts on the dynamics of the competition:
- Unless Windows 7′s driver situation is worse than it seems and/or PC manufacturers manage to screw the OS up with unwantedware, it’s going to make for better PCs than Windows Vista ever did;
- I’d still rate Snow Leopard as the better OS, but the gap between the two platforms is smaller than it’s been in a long time;
- Windows 7 doesn’t do much to reduce the need of Windows users to worry about security in a way that Mac owners don’t;
- It also doesn’t eliminate such Mac virtues as the bundling of iLife;
- As John Gruber says, the competition between Windows and Macs only happens at the high end of the market–most people who buy Windows buy it on cheaper, lower-end computers for which there is no Mac counterpart.
Ultimately, I keep coming back to the notion that most people really don’t have any particular desire to switch operating systems. If Windows 7 lives up to its promise and expectations, it’ll leave fewer Windows users tempted to dump the OS. But I suspect that most folks who have made the jump to the Mac aren’t coming back.
Your take?
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October 16th, 2009 at 11:35 am
According to this, http://www.appleinsider.com/articles/09/10/13/history_suggests_windows_7_launch_could_boost_mac_sales.html
in the last 10 years Mac sales have increased every time Microsoft releases a new OS.
There’s also this, http://www.appleinsider.com/articles/09/10/16/apples_snow_leopard_bests_windows_7_in_speed_tests.html, Snow Leopard is faster than Windows 7.
As far as backing up data in switching from Windows to Snow Leopard, for $99 one can buy the One to One and Apple specialists with transfer the data for you, in addition to other helpful services. http://www.apple.com/getamac/faq/
http://www.apple.com/retail/onetoone/
Not to mention that Windows 7 is still Windows that comes with all its legacy problems – registry, virus, certification, etc.
The choice between the two is crystal clear to me.
October 16th, 2009 at 12:44 pm
I’d say it depends on the crapware that manufactures insist of weighing down Windows with. That for me is my biggest complaint.
Why the likes of QuickTime and Adobe need to run on start-up is beyond me (I delete the offending files and they still run fine!)
October 16th, 2009 at 6:36 pm
Windows has three main problems: 1) confusing, inefficient, awkward UI 2) poor performance and stability 3) poor security.
The latter two points are consequences (in part) of MSFT’s failure to upgrade to UNIX during their Years of Opportunity, 1995(Win95)-2000(release of OS X). To be sure, MSFT was busy fending off the DoJ and Bill Gates was busy retirement planning– they were distracted. Win 7 is still not UNIX, and, though the performance gets back to Win XP levels– that’s nothing to brag about. They’ve had a lot of time to get there.
As for the UI; MSFT is still MSFT. They think like geeks; not like power users.
“I’d still rate Snow Leopard as the better OS, but the gap between the two platforms is smaller than it’s been in a long time;”
Disagree. Snow Leopard added LOTS of performance features; they’re just not being tapped just yet, since SL just came out.
Also, adoption of Win 7 will be better than 90% through new computer purchases– it will be slow.
I think, overall, the trend lines won’t waver one way or the other much.
October 16th, 2009 at 8:20 pm
Marc pretty much has it on the money as far as I’m concerned. The majority of Windows 7 sales are going to be through pre-assembled systems, and the amount of garbage-ware varies from manufacturer. Of course, that can’t compete with Apple’s zero amount. Asus so far is the only manufacturer that hardly includes garbage-ware on their machines, but there was a bunch of proprietary software that loaded on first boot, so the effect was still felt, kind of. Boot times were still slower than they could be. A quick upgrade to Windows 7 on my EEE changed that though, since the drivers that were included nullified the need for these proprietary programs, mainly the Bluetooth software.
October 17th, 2009 at 8:49 am
Mac are gonna sell at whatever rate the market for Macs allows. The real question is: How are Mac sales going to affect the sales of Windows 7, since so many Macs are set up to also run Windows?
October 18th, 2009 at 2:59 am
Microsoft has to do something. They keep losing market share to Apple.
October 24th, 2009 at 1:00 am
I don’t see much change. A year or two from now Windows will still own the OS market and Mac will still pretend like they do.