Last week, I asked you to participate in an experiment: trying to predict a bunch of details about Apple’s tablet by voting on multiple-choice questions, then aggregating the results into a unified set of prognostications. Almost 300 of you participated. After the jump, we’ll see how you did. (Oh, and a note: Mike Munsell won our drawing for a $100 Apple Store Gift Card–congrats!)

Here are the results, with my rating of your prediction’s accuracy BRACKETED IN UPPER-CASE AND BOLDFACE:

First of all, a basic question: Is Apple going to announce a tablet on Wednesday?

Yes. A landslide 96 percent of you say it will. [YOU WERE RIGHT!]

Now your point-by-point prognostications…

OS: It’ll run iPhone OS or a very close variant thereof (59% say so) [QUALIFIES AS A "YOU WERE RIGHT!," I THINK--IT RUNS iPHONE OS 3.2]

Screen size: at least 10″ but less than 11″ (55%) [YOU WERE SLIGHTLY OFF! IT HAS A 9.7" SCREEN.]

Input features: multi-touch (99%). A majority says it won’t have pen input, a touchpad, a physical keyboard, more than one button in its face, or dedicated game controls. (We didn’t ask about an on-screen keyboard, but presumably it’ll have one if it’s otherwise QWERTY-free.) [YOU WERE RIGHT!]

Screen technology: LCD (49%). 43% think it’ll be OLED, and a gutsy 3% predict E-Ink. [YOU WERE RIGHT! TO BE EXACT, IT'S AN IPS LCD WITH LED BACKLIGHTING.]

Hardware features:

• Wi-Fi (99%) [RIGHT!]
• a headphone jack (93%) [RIGHT!]
• Flash storage (82%) [RIGHT!]
• Bluetooth (84%) [RIGHT!]
• An accelerometer (78%) [RIGHT!]
• 3G wireless (70%) [RIGHT, AS AN OPTION!]
• speakers (65%) [RIGHT!]
• GPS (64%) [RIGHT!]
• One or more USB ports (62%) [ONLY THROUGH AN OPTIONAL ADAPTER]
• a camera (59%) [YOU WERE WRONG!]

Storage (base model): 32GB (32%) [SORRY, THERE'S A 16GB VERSION!]

3G providers: Wow, it’ll be available on more than one of them! (38%) [NO, JUST AT&T!]

Included applications:

• Web browser (87%) [RIGHT!]
• E-reader (85%) [RIGHT!]
• Video player (81%) [RIGHT!]
• iTunes Store (81%) [RIGHT!]
• Music player (71%) [RIGHT!]
• E-mail (63%) [RIGHT!]
• Games (61%) [AS FAR AS KNOW, IT DOESN'T COME WITH ANY, ALTHOUGH GAMING IS A KEY FEATURE]
• Photo organizer (55%) [RIGHT!]

[IT ALSO COMES WITH A CALENDAR; YOU THOUGHT IT WOULD NOT. APPLE DEMOED A WORD PROCESSOR, SPREADSHEET, AND PRESENTATION APP, WHICH YOU SAID IT WOULDN'T HAVE--BUT THEY'RE NOT BUNDLED WITH THE DEVICE, SO YOU'RE OK]

Application strategy: Third-party apps will be distributed through an iPhone-like App Store (81%). iPhone apps will run with some modification by the developer (69%). [RIGHT!]

Compatibility: iPhone apps will run, with some modification. [THEY'LL RUN WITHOUT ANY MODIFICATION--BUT TWEAKING THEM WILL RESULT IN BETTER USE OF THE SCREEN SPACE.]

E-book strategy: We have a tie! Exactly 48.5% of you think Apple will let other publishers sell books, magazines, and newspapers through the tablet,and 48.5% think it’ll sell them itself. Only 3% think it won’t do anything e-book related. [APPLE IS SELLING BOOKS ITSELF.]

Price (of lowest-cost model, including any carrier subsidy): Another tie! 24% say $799, and 25% say $699, (1.3% percent optimistically say $199.) [YOU WERE VERY WRONG! IT STARTS AT $499 WITHOUT SUBSIDY. ONLY 14% OF YOU PREDICTED $499.]

The product’s name: iSlate (31%). Second place: “Other,” at 21%. [WRONG! BUT 19% DID SAY iPAD.]

Shipping in: March (40%). Second place: April or later, at 36%. [BOTH FIRST AND SECOND PLACE ARE RIGHT! WI-FI ONLY ARRIVES IN 60 DAYS; 3G VERSION IN 90.]

The event will be presided over by: Steve Jobs (88%). Eight percent say Phil Schiller. [YOU WERE RIGHT! THE ONES WHO VOTED FOR JOBS, I MEAN.]

Other predictions made by one or more survey takers that sounded either plausible or at least not utterly fantastic:

• Option to connect Apple Wireless Keyboard through Bluetooth [NO, BUT THERE IS A WIRED KEYBOARD]
• They won’t sell 10 million in the first year, but will sell over 5 million. [WE'LL SEE]
• It will likely use a “one app at a time” scheme. There will be no file system. It will essentially be a computing appliance your grandmother can operate. [RIGHT ON FIRST TWO POINTS; THIRD DEPENDS ON GRANNY]
• Going against the rumor mill, the Apple tablet may be carrier-agnostic (3G). [SORT OF--THEY'RE PARTNERING WITH AT&T, BUT IT'S UNLOCKED]
• Will have multiple color options. [NO]
• Will run a modified iPhone OS but it WILL allow background apps. [NOPE]
• There will be at least one totally off-the-wall feature that no one predicted. [NOT REALLY]
• Developers will be able to use the dock connector for hardware (game controllers etc) [NOT SURE BUT I HOPE SO]
• Payment systems for some magazines and newspapers through iTunes will already be worked out when it goes live. [IF SO THEY DIDN'T MENTION IT]
• Called Applet [I LIKE THE IDEA, BUT NO]
• It will have some form of interaction with Apple TV. It will also have a docking element (i.e. docking to an external keyboard through its charge port). [THEY DIDN'T MENTION THE FIRST; RIGHT ON THE SECOND]
• A single camera on the front of the device, that will eventually be used for video conferencing [NO CAMERA]
• Free 3G subsidized by their own ad network (Quattro) [NO]

Overall, not bad–the machine you recognized is largely the one Apple announced, with the biggest difference being the lower-than-expected starting price. You certainly did as good a job as any number of pundits and experts, and better than some…

 
2 Comments


Read more: Apple, Apple iPad, Tablets