By Harry McCracken | Wednesday, March 2, 2011 at 10:08 pm
Another Apple press event has come and gone, And as usual, the predictions I asked you to make hours before the event start turned out to be…well, not perfect, but impressive overall.
You didn’t figure out that Steve Jobs would preside. You expected the iPad and iOS 4.3 to take longer to show up than Apple says they will. You were excited about a new version of MobileMe that remains, for now, strictly theoretical. But you got most of the big stuff right, including some points I would have messed up. (I was expecting the iPad 2 to lack a rear camera, and for Steve Jobs, or someone, to helpfully explain to us that we didn’t even want one.)
Let’s recap–the numbers are the percentages of respondents who made each prediction, and the upshot is [IN CAPS AND BRACKETS] after each item.
Yes, it will (99%). [99% OF YOU…GUESSED THE OBVIOUS]
It’ll have a front-facing FaceTime camera (96%) [IT DOES]
It’ll have a faster processor (87%) [IT DOES–THE 1-GHz DUAL-CORE A5]
It’ll be thinner (86%) [IT IS–.34″]
It’ll be lighter (80%) [IT IS–1.33 lbs]
It’ll have more than the current 256MB of RAM (80%) [APPLE ISN’T SAYING, BUT IT MAY HAVE 512MB. MAYBE. A TEARDOWN WILL TELL]
It’ll have better graphics technologies (56%)
It’ll have a rear-facing camera (54%)
(You said it wouldn’t have a higher-res screen, more than 64GB of storage, a screen that’s brighter or otherwise more legible, 4G, longer battery life, a removable battery, a memory-card slot, a USB connector, a Thunderbolt port, NFC, better audio, fewer buttons, better case materials, a physical keyboard, or a stylus. Nor will would run on both GSM and CDMA networks. Right on all counts, unless Apple improved the audio and forgot to mention it.)
AT&T and Verizon Wireless (98% and 94%, respectively). [RIGHT ON BOTH COUNTS]
More than two weeks from the announcement, but less than a month(34.4%) [WRONG–IT’LL BE AVAILABLE A WEEK FROM THIS FRIDAY.]
$499 (50%) [YEP]
Yes, it will (77%) [YOU COULD MAKE A CASE THAT iOS 4.3 ISN’T MAJOR, I GUESS–BUT IT’S ALSO NOT A BUG FIX.]
FaceTime (93%) [YES]
A better notification system (58%) [NO]
Less than 50 percent of you said it would have widgets, wireless synchronization, other synchronization improvements, a better Safari app, better Mail, better Calendar, better Photos, better Maps, better iBooks, new streaming media features, new gaming-related features, new voice-control features, improvements to the Home Screen/Folders, and improvements to the App Store/In-App Purchases/Subscriptions. Startlingly, you also don’t think it’ll pack Flash or SilverLight. [IT LACKS MOST OF THIS STUFF, BUT SAFARI IS FASTER AND THERE’S MORE STREAMING STUFF–BOTH HOME SHARING AND BETTER AIRPLAY.]
It’s going to be more than two weeks but less than three months. [IT’S ALSO ARRIVING A WEEK FROM FRIDAY.]
Yes, a new version of MobileMe (78%). But not a new streaming service, new iOS apps, a new iPhone, a new iPod, a new Mac, a new Apple TV, new iPhone accessories, or any other new products. [THE COMPANY DIDN’T ANNOUNCE A NEW MOBILE ME. BUT IT DID UNVEIL NEW IOS VERSIONS OF IMOVIE AND GARAGEBAND.]
Tim Cook (37%). For the record, 16 percent of you think it’ll be Steve Jobs. [16 PERCENT OF YOU–NOT INCLUDING ME–ARE GENIUSES]
The iPad will come in both white and black, with the white one being available at the same time as the black one. And the white iPhone 4 will finally be available. [YES ON EVERYTHING EXCEPT THE WHITE IPHONE BIT]
This might turn out to be an iPhone 3G to 3GS type of launch where they do internals updates. I hope not but it’s possible. [NOPE, THE OUTSIDES CHANGED A LOT, TOO]
MobileMe will become a free ad supported service with iAds. [NO MENTION OF MOBILEME]
I predict that Thunderbolt support will be via a Dock connector cable to thunderbolt connection, beginning their move from USB. It will be similar to how they went from firewire iPods to USB. [COOL IDEA, BUT NOT YET]
Due to the sheer amount of speculation and hype, nothing announced will surprise the majority of tech commentators and journalists covering the launch…if anything, we’ll come away thinking what have they left out that will feature in the iPad 3. [YOU BE THE JUDGE]
iLife for the iPad [PART OF IT: IMOVIE AND GARAGEBAND]
Higher quality iTunes Digital Audio (24-bit) [NO]
App store for Apple TV?? [NO]
I predict that the iPad will actually go up in price but drop the 16gb version. 32mb version $449 and $549 for the 3G model. The Android tablets launching at ridiculously high prices allow Apple more wiggle room with the iPad to raise the price and still be considered the least expensive tablet entry point. [SAME PRICE]
Probably incorrect, but the colorful dots decorating the Yerba Buena Center had me thinking about multiple color options, like with the iPod nanos and shuffles. That said, having color options would be fairly silly. [TWO COLORS OF IPAD, LOTS OF COLORS OF SMART COVERS]
Wireless will not work for attendees [ACTUALLY, THERE WAS WI-FI–RARE FOR AN APPLE EVENT–AND IT SEEMED TO WORK GREAT]
Harry will miss the event due to traffic. [280 WAS CONGESTED, BUT I GOT THERE WITH TIME TO SPARE–DROPPED OFF BY MY THOUGHTFUL WIFE MARIE]
Jacqui Cheng will be prettier than Harry. [THAT’S A STATEMENT OF UNDENIABLE FACT, NOT A PREDICTION!]
The earth will shift on its axis, ever so slightly. [I DIDN’T FEEL IT–BUT I DID HAVE A GOOD TIME]
As a group, you did quite nicely. Congratulations. Now tell me this: Is there really going to be an iPad 3 just a few months from now?
March 8th, 2011 at 5:17 am
I'm not sure about iPad 2 Prices, still seemms a lot for a giant ipod touch.
March 9th, 2011 at 6:19 am
The funny thing is, barring small things like whether they used the same cameras found in the iPod Touch and iPad 2-version apps like iMovie and Garageband; this is exactly right.