Technologizer

Over at Wired News, Brian X. Chen has posted what’s probably not the only article we’ll see in the next few days that juxtaposes the words “Zune” and “failure.” Brian talked to a bunch of Microsoft-watchers, and the gist of their consensus is that the fact that the Zune isn’t a true software platform sets it up to bomb.

I don’t agree that it’s destined to tank–I’m guessing that Microsoft would be thrilled if it sold half as many Zune HDs as Apple sells iPod Nanos, and the Nano is even less of a software platform than the Zune. But yes, the iPod Touch is core to Apple’s future, and there’s no way that the Zune in its current form is core to Microsoft’s fate. Even in a best-case scenario, it’ll just be a neat media player that sells well.

(Speaking of the Nano, MKM Partners’ Tero Kuittinen has an interesting suggestion for Microsoft in Brian’s story: Lower the price of the Zune HD so it’s a cooler, more powerful alternative to the Nano rather than a more limited iPod Touch rival.)

Anyhow, I bring this up mostly because I’m interested in what you think…

Weird but true: For Apple, 2009 has turned out to be the year of inner beauty. Most of the company’s new products, including the iPhone 3GS and the latest MacBooks, are virtually indistinguishable from their predecessors, but which pack meaningful improvements inside. The trend continues with the fifth-generation iPod Nano. For the first time, Apple’s annual reinvention of its most popular music player isn’t about aesthetics–in fact, the new Nano is the same size as the old one and differs visually only its slightly larger screen and slightly smaller clickwheel, the camera on its backside, and the slicker and more vividly colorful (and, I’m hoping, more scratch-resistant) finish on its aluminum case. But the latest Nano carries more new features than any of more outwardly revised predecessors.

In fact, this is the first Nano that feels a little less like a music player and a little more like a Swiss Army Knife. Much of what Apple has added has nothing to do with music: The Nano is now a video camera, a stand-alone voice recorder, and a pedometer. And the major new music feature–an FM radio–is so retro that I’d long ago assumed that Apple would never add one to one of its products. Like most Swiss Army Knives, the new Nano doesn’t match every single-purpose product in every respect, but the improvements add up to a fun upgrade that retains a logical place in the iPod family even in the era of the much fancier and more versatile iPod Touch.

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Today, Steve Jobs and company announced iPhone OS 3.1 (Genius mixes, ringtones); iTunes 9 (iPhone LP content, iPhone app management, fancier syncing, media transfers, new look); cheaper iPod Touches with more capacity; iPod Shuffles in new colors with a lower starting price point and a stainless steel version; a capacity bump for the iPod Classic to 160GB; and an iPod Nano in fancy new colors with with a video camera, FM tuner, voice recorder, and pedometer. It also gave a bunch of iPhone OS game companies a chance to show their new wares. Oh, and Steve Jobs returned to the stage and Norah Jones sang a couple of songs.

Seems to cry out for a T-Poll:

On my way into this morning’s Apple music event, I told a fellow attendee that those of you who participated in our survey yesterday had collectively predicted that Apple would announce an iPod Touch with a camera and a version of iTunes with social networking features, and that Steve Jobs would make an appearance. “I think they got two out of three right,” I said. By which I meant that I thought the Touch and iTunes predictions were spot on, but that Jobs would most likely not preside.

Turns out that you did get two out of three right–but you were right about iTunes and Jobs, and wrong (like most everybody else) about the Touch. You were also wrong (like many folks) about the iPod Classic being discontinued, but it was a squeaker: 51 percent thought it was toast, and 49 percent rightly believed it would stick around.

Only one other thing came to pass that you thought wouldn’t: An overwhelming 75 percent of survey-takers predicted that there wouldn’t be an iPod Nano with a camera. Apple, it turns out, thought otherwise.

Okay, so those results fall short of being uncannily accurate–at worst, they’re comparable to those of most big-time Apple pundits. You guys ever thought of doing this for a living?

It seems to be a mandatory component of the kabuki that is Apple press events and coverage thereof: Nearly every such product rollout is initially dismissed as a disappointment. Despite the welcome return of Steve Jobs, this morning’s one certainly is certainly getting lukewarm reviews, in part because it failed to involve even such relatively mundane rumored gizmos as an iPod Touch with a camera.

I came with my expectations firmly in check, and saw at least one bit of news which will change my life as a user of technology for the better (iTunes’ new tools for managing iPhone apps). So while I may not have been wowed, I also wasn’t nonplussed by the lack of all-new products or other major developments. And as usual, a lot of what was interesting at this event had as much to do with implications as the concrete facts. After the photo of Steve, fourteen questions and attempts at answers…

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Twelve hours from now, Apple’s music event will be underway, and I’ll be  sitting in the audience providing liveblog coverage right here. The big news won’t quite have come yet, but by noon we’ll know all. For now, though, it’s still predictin’ time–and here are some from you guys.

Yesterday night, I posted a quick survey about the event, asking you to pick which items would happen from a list covering some things that have been rumored or predicted, or which just sound logical. If we define a prediction as something which more than fifty percent of the folks who took the survey think will occur, only three made the grade: You think we’ll see an iPod Touch with a camera, that Steve Jobs will make an appearance, and that there will be a new version of iTunes with social networking features. It now looks like the Beatles won’t show up on iTunes tomorrow; you made an almost-prediction that they would, with exactly fifty percent of respondents predicting their arrival.

Here’s everything you voted on. (I should have also asked about Apple’s reported “Cocktail” format for digital albums, but didn’t).

I also asked whether Apple will discontinue the iPod Classic tomorrow. You predicted it would, in a squeaker: 51 percent versus 49 percent.

Thanks for voting, everyone; I’ll check back in tomorrow with a final tally of how we did…

Last time Apple had a big product rollout, I asked you to make some predictions. Collectively, you did better than some of the big-time Apple pundits. Now we’re just hours away from the company’s music event, which Technologizer will cover live beginning at 10am PT on Wednesday.

So let’s try this again, with another quick survey. I’ve listed some of the products that have been rumored or predicted for the event, and also let you predict whether the iPod Classic will get the axe or live on to play another day. I’ll close the survey Tuesday night and report on your verdict before the event happens–then follow up with a look at just how uncannily accurate you were.

Click here to take the Apple Music Event survey.

Tumblr developer/blogger Marco Arment has posted his best guesses about what Apple will announce–iPodwise, at least–at its music event next Wednesday (Technologizer will be there to liveblog the news). Arment’s predictions seem logical enough–which doesn’t guarantee their accuracy, of course–and the most interesting thing about them is that he thinks that Apple will discontinue the iPod Classic, the high-capacity, small-screen, no-touch, no-apps model that’s the direct descendent of the original 2001 iPod.

In the era in which the iPod Touch is unquestionably the most exciting iPod and the Nano is the dominant “traditional” iPod, are there any reasons why Apple wouldn’t kill the Classic?

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If it’s September in the world of technology, one thing is pretty much a given: Apple will release some new iPods and update iTunes. I’ll be in the audience at San Francisco’s Yerba Buena Gardens next Wedneday at 10am as the company does that–I’m assuming–and maybe tells us other stuff of interest, too. (If you think it’ll announce a tablet, tell us now so you claim immense foresight, really good sources, or ESP if it does–most of the world has decided it won’t.)

I’ll blog the event as it happens, as quickly as humanly possible (courtesy of Cover It Live). If there’s a Q&A session, I’ll try to ask a question on behalf of the Technologizer community, so if you’ve got any queries right now relating to Apple and its music-related products, ask ‘em in the comments on this post or at the home page for our coverage. And join us on Wednesday right here, won’t you?

When Apple released the voice-controlled third-generation iPod Shuffle back in March, lots of folks understandably fixated on the fact that Apple had moved the controls to the earbud cord, making it impossible to use the Shuffle with third-party headsets. Apple said that it would license the design to other headset manufacturers. And today, Klipsch announced the Image S4i headset, which sports a microphone and the on-cord buttons needed to control the Shuffle. Available in August, it’ll sell for $99.99–twenty-one bucks more than the Shuffle itself. I’d love to know how many Shuffle owners there are out there who are serious enough about sound to invest more in a headset than they did in their audio player.

Of course, Klipsch says the S4i provides a superior experience–it’s got sound-isolating earbuds and a 360-degree microphone, among other features. And the headset also works with some fancier Apple products: the iPhone 3GS, second generation iPod touch, fourth generation iPod Nano, and the iPod Classic 120GB.

iPod Touch gets microphone, camera?

The race for airplane Wi-Fi.

Copyright: good for the economy!

Qwest’s DSL service hits 40Mbps.

Negroponte does an OLPC postmortem.

Hero Android phone: fatally flawed.

Macs finally get BlackBerry software.

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You would think a PC guy could escape Apple’s clutches. I’ve been successful until now, but I recently bought an Apple iPod Touch. Here’s the weird part: I love it.

If you own an iPod Touch, you’re wondering why it took me so long. For the rest of you: This is one fun device, and a terrifically useful one with the right applications. Watch a video to see what the gizmo does. (Warning: The presenter is a hurt-your-eyes perky Apple evangelist.)

Actually, I had no choice. My wife, Judy, heard about iBird ($30), a must-have birding program available for the Apple iPhone and iPod touch. The app does away with the hassle of carrying birding field guides; iBird shows images and illustrations of birds, plays their songs, supplies behavior and range details, and more. (Even if you’re not a birder, watch a video of iBird in action–it’s amazing.)

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Judging the accuracy of Apple rumors may not be a cakewalk, but one technique is surprisingly effective and obvious: Ask yourself if past Apple history suggests that a rumor sounds like something the company would do. By that measure, the current rumors about iPod Touch and Nano models with built-in video cameras sounds entirely plausible. The iPhone 3GS’s camera shows Apple has invested in video-recording hardware and software. It’s gradually been turning every iPod except for the screenless Shuffle into a video device. And given that a high percentage of people who want iPods own them by now, Apple could use a strikingly new feature with wide appeal to tempt them to upgrade.

On the other hand, I’d be surprised if concurrent rumors about Apple getting ready to build projectors into iPhones and iPods are the real deal. Projectors may be getting tinier, but they aren’t yet teensy enough to cram into a phone or MP3 player that’s as thin as the ones Apple likes to make. And how often would a real person want to project an image from an iPhone or iPod in the real world? Not all that often, surely. Apple history shows that it’s not all that interested in adding exotic features that won’t be used much, and is almost never the first company to embrace a new technology. (It tends to cheerfully sit on the sidelines while other companies make bleeding-edge products that are noble in their ambitions but frustrating in practice.)

I’m not saying that there will never be Apple handheld devices with built-in projectors, but I don’t think we’re a couple of months away from seeing them. And a couple of months from now is almost certainly when Apple will announce its new lineup of iPods. Any guesses (or wishes) about what the Fall 2009 lineup of iPods will involve?

On Wednesday, a legendary gadget turns thirty–Sony’s Walkman, which put high-quality music into our pockets for the first time. Back when I was at PC World, we named the original model, the TPS-L2, as the greatest gadget of all time; the iPod was #2. The Walkman name lives on via new phones and digital audio players; if the iPod name is still in use in 2031, thirty years after the debut of Apple’s first music player, I’ll be impressed.

I was reminded of the anniversary by a fun BBC story by a 13-year-old who tried replacing his iPod with a Walkman (he wasn’t impressed). And I was moved to create a T-Grid comparing 1979’s TPS-L2 to today’s most highly-evolved iPod, the iPod Touch. Like the Beeb’s teenaged tester, I wouldn’t give up my iPod (which happens to be an iPhone) for a Walkman. But I’m not so sure that the TPS-L2 wasn’t equally as impressive (and fashionable) in its day, in its own way…

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Want a reason to check  out RealPlayer SP, the new beta of the next version of RealPlayer, a media player that most of us have used at one time or another but which is no longer omnipresent? It’s got a new feature that’s pretty cool: the ability to easily download video from YouTube and other sites, convert it, and then get it onto a bevy of devices.

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