Tony Bennett closes out the last Apple keynote at Macworld--to date--in January 2009.

The great thing about the Apple rumors published at Taiwanese component-news site DigiTimes is that you never know what you’re going to get. Sometimes it has scoops that really are scoops. Other times–many times–its rumors are strictly fictional. You can neither trust it nor ignore it.

Today, DigiTimes has a story I know I like, whether or not it amounts to anything. The site says that a source tells it that Apple is going to release two new iPads in January, with super-high-res screens. But the part of the rumor that’s entertaining is that DigiTimes’ source says that Apple will announce its new tablets at Macworld/iWorld–the conference formerly known as Macworld Expo –which is being held starting on January 26th in San Francisco.

For those who came in late, Apple famously pulled out of Macworld after the January 2009 edition, saying that it no longer needed Macworld–or, really, conferences at all–to communicate with its customers. As a former employee of Macworld’s organizer, IDG, and a fan of the show, I was disappointed by the decision. But I couldn’t argue with the thinking behind it.

Nothing has happened in the interim to make DigiTimes’ new rumor sound more likely. The iPad 2 went on sale on March 11th, so announcing new iPads in late January sounds a tad early. And even if Apple does want to announce them around then, I can’t think of a reason why it would want to do so at Macworld/iWorld. The company is simply more comfortable running its own events its own way. Piggybacking on Macworld/iWorld would provide no particular PR boost, and would make Apple look indecisive.

Then there’s the little fact that the Macworld/iWorld schedule doesn’t seem to leave any time open for an Apple keynote. Nor do I see space on the show floor for a giant Apple booth. (Conspiracy theorists may choose to believe that IDG is covering up Apple’s plans with dummy events on the schedule and a fraudulent floor map.)

And just to make DigiTimes look even more erratic than usual, its new rumor involves a retraction of another (unlikely-sounding) rumor it was reporting just a few days ago: That Apple would soon be releasing a 7″ iPad.

If, all evidence and logic to the contrary, Apple does show up at Macworld/iWorld, I’ll be tickled. Decisiveness and finality are all very well, but so are old traditions. But for now, the idea seems all but utterly implausible. The chances it’ll happen? I’d say they’re about .000000000001%.

That, at least, is the truth as predicted by research firm IDC. The company has released those numbers as part of its sales forecasts for “converged mobile device operating systems.” They certainly sound plausible. But I’m struck by how precise these 2014 numbers are. IDC’s phone experts clearly think they can extrapolate a great deal from the current trajectories of major phone operating systems.

But change in the tech industry isn’t always about trajectories–sometimes it’s about unexpected twists and big bangs that even experts can’t anticipate. I’m pretty smart for my age, but I know enough to know that if I tried to predict what sort of phones Apple, RIM, Nokia, and Google’s Android partners will be making in 2014, I’d probably be badly off on multiple major points. And absent a clear picture of what smartphones will be like in four years, I’d have a tough time saying anything intelligent about how the competitive field will shape up.

All of which leads to an obvious question: What sort of predictions did IDC make about today’s phone market four years ago? So I dug up a story from 2006 with some IDC forecasts for 2010.  The 2005 data focuses on enterprise smartphones, not the larger market–which makes sense, since the consumer smartphone market didn’t really quite exist yet. But it’s clear that IDC failed to pull off the remarkable feat of foreseeing the amazing changes that would happen over the next few years.

In 2006, it predicted that Windows Mobile would have 32.3% of the market in 2010 (now it says that Microsoft has 6.8 percent). And it estimated that BlackBerries would have 14.9 percent share (okay, that’s not radically off its current figure for 2010: 17.9 percent).

What were IDCs 2006 estimates for iPhone and Android sales in 2010? That’s easy: It didn’t make any, because neither platform had been announced. As far as IDC knew, the typical “converged” handset of 2010 was going to sport a physical QWERTY keyboard and maybe a stylus, and it would run an OS from a company with years of phone experience and a large customer base.

You can’t blame IDC for not realizing that the two dominant phone platforms in 2010 would be ones that didn’t exist in 2006, invented by companies that weren’t in the phone business in 2005. And I don’t mean to bash the firm (which, like my former employer PCWorld, is a division of IDG). Other research companies make these sort of predictions all the time and take the same risk of being utterly blindsided by reality.

(In fact, I could have written this story about Piper Jaffray, which released its own predictions about the future of the phone market this week. Then again, in 2005 the company’s Gene Munster correctly guessed that Apple might make a handset called the iPhone...although he also thought that Apple would probably get into the phone business by becoming a virtual wireless carrier.)

It’s entirely possible that IDC’s numbers will look downright prescient come 2014. But I’m thinking that the chances are at least as good that something will happen in 2011, 2012, or 2013 that changes everything. If we all end up carrying Facebookphones, Twitterphones, or phones from some company that hasn’t been founded yet, you heard it here first…

Okay, back to this reality. In December 2008. Apple announced that Macworld 2009 would be the last one with an Apple keynote (by Phil Schiller) and Apple on the show floor. Many Applewatchers took the news to spell the end of the show, and IDG, Macworld’s owner, spent a year regrouping and reimagining Macworld, attempting to make the show a success without the presence of the irreplaceable company that defined it for its first quarter century.

The iPad was announced last week, on Apple’s timetable at a venue of Apple’s choosing.  IDG announced last year that it was streamlining its show’s name to Macworld 2010 and moving it to dates that don’t collide with the holiday season: It’s next week, February 9th-13th at San Francisco’s Moscone Center. I spoke with General Manager Paul Kent, who says that the conference’s mission remains the same as always: “It’s about product discovery, education, and social networking.”

“All three are things we do particularly well, and they’re things we can  control,” Kent told me.

With Apple’s absence, the organizers are emphasizing the educational and social aspects of Macworld, by redoubling efforts to make the conference component worthwhile. Steve Jobs may be planning to spend the show quietly at work in Cupertino, but IDG has lined up numerous Mac celebs to speak, such as director Kevin Smith, David Pogue, Guy Kawasaki, Leo Leporte, Daring Fireball’s John Gruber, and my Macworld pals, including editorial director Jason Snell. There may be no iPads on the premises at Moscone, but there will be a session about the gizmo, and Kent told me that Macworld will be “a forum for people to talk about this thing.”

When Apple pulled out, many exhibitors lost faith and/or interest in Macworld and pulled out: Kent says that IDG expects about 230 companies to be on the show floor, about 200 fewer than last year. That means that the show will fit into one hall; among the companies that will be there are Microsoft, HP, VMware, Monster Cable, and eighty developers who are exhibiting in a new area dedicated to apps.

All of which brings us back to the question that nobody can answer for sure just yet: What is Macworld’s future? It’s going to be a far smaller show, and the tech world’s eyes won’t turn to Moscone as they did when Steve Jobs (or even Phil Schiller) graced the keynote stage. Many prognostications are bleak.

As an outsider with some knowledge of IDG, my semi-informed expectation is that there will be a Macworld 2011, and the big question is whether it’ll be a pretty good (albeit downsized) show, or will feel like a Dead Show Walking. That depends largely on whether the attendees and exhibitors at the 2010 show come away feeling that their time and money were well invested.

At least everyone’s known for more than a year that it’s going to be a very different show than in past years, and expectations are so guarded-even among Macworld fans–that exceeding them shouldn’t be a pipe dream. For me, Macworld 2010 is a subway ride away. I’m attending–between Macworlds Boston and Macworlds SF I’ve attended the show off and on over all three decades of its existence–and will let you know what I think.

(Very full disclosure: I’m a former employee of IDG and am still a participant in the company’s Employee Stock Ownership Plan.)

To quote its release:

Apple is reaching more people in more ways than ever before, so like many companies, trade shows have become a very minor part of how Apple reaches its customers. The increasing popularity of Apple’s Retail Stores, which more than 3.5 million people visit every week, and the Apple.com website enable Apple to directly reach more than a hundred million customers around the world in innovative new ways.

Apple has been steadily scaling back on trade shows in recent years, including NAB, Macworld New York, Macworld Tokyo and Apple Expo in Paris.

All of which is true. And it’s conceivable that it’s the whole story about Apple’s decision. But the release doesn’t tippy-toe anywhere near any of the truly interesting questions raised by this bombshell. Such as the twelve that leap to my mind–which I’ll ask after the jump.

1. Does no Jobs mean no significant product announcements? You’d think that if something like a netbook or two was on the way, Jobs would be there, if only for one swansong of a Macworld keynote. Or, in his absence, an Apple exec who’s better at creating reality-distortion fields than the pleasant-but-not-exactly-electrifying Schiller.

2. If there aren’t any significant product announcements at Macworld, does that mean no big Apple news in early 2009? I’m guessing not–Apple has proven itself entirely capable of doing keynotes (ones by Steve Jobs, at least) on its own timetable that get huge attention despite not being attached to conferences. If it’s running a bit late or has simply lost interest in Macworld Expo, it could mount a press event extravaganza of its own later in January or in February, on its own schedule.

3. Why no Steve? I don’t like talking about the man’s health, which is why I didn’t lead with this question–he deserves his privacy, and I’m no doctor. But the question will be asked. Endlessly, unless he shows up at another event soon.

4. What does this mean for Macworld Expo? I enjoy the show and know, like, and respect many of the folks involved in running it, so I hope it’s not devastating…or even fatal. But it’s terrible news for the event–a Macworld Expo without a Jobs keynote will get dramatically less attention and therefore pull in fewer exhibitors and attendees.

5. What does it mean for the Apple market? The Apple release speaks the truth when it says that trade shows don’t matter as much as they used to. But IDG would tell you that Expo is an important marketing platform for the companies (most of them very small) that sell Apple-related software, accessories, and services. And I bet many of those companies would agree, and would like to see Expo prosper.

6. Might Apple compete directly with Macworld Expo? Probably not. But it certainly could–it does an entirely competent job of running the developer-oriented WWDC conference, which is also a key event for the Apple market, and a powerful venue for Jobs keynote addresses and product introductions.

7. Why did Apple announce it won’t be at Macworld next year? Telling the world about the decision now is arguably the fairest thing to do, but it’s also probably more damaging to Macworld Expo than if the news had come out later?

8. Why did it say it’s not exhibiting again, period? It’s not often you hear a company state any decision with such finality. It’s telling the world it’s parted way with Expo forever, not that it decided to take a pass this year.

9. Actually, why did it do a press release at all? It’s a bit like holding a press conference to announce you’re divorcing your spouse.

10. When did IDG know? Did Apple give it a heads up? Even a brief one? Or did it get the news when the rest of us did?

11. Is there a backstory we don’t know about? Macworld Expo Boston was once a powerhouse event of its own, but it withered and died after it moved to New York and then back to Boston; Apple pulled out. The Apple-IDG relationship is venerable–Macworld the magazine debuted on the same day as the Mac, with Apple’s full support–but you never know what might be going on behind the scenes.

12. Have we seen the last Jobs keynote? At Macworld, apparently. But for many reasons, I hope he strides onto a stage somewhere in the near future…

(Obligatory but unnecessary full disclosure: I spent 17 years at IDG, the owner of Macworld Expo.)

Frenemy: Someone who is both friend and enemy, a relationship that is both mutually beneficial or dependent while being competitive, fraught with risk and mistrust.

–Urban Dictionary

That’s not a bad first stab at a definition, but let’s expand on it: A frenemy can be a friend who evolves into an enemy. Or an enemy who morphs into a friend. Or a friend who seems to be an enemy, or an enemy who seems to be a friend. Or someone who teeters precariously between friendship and enemyhood, sometimes over the course of decades. One thing, however, is undeniable about frenemies: The technology world has always been rife with them. Consider these twelve outstanding examples–past, present, and future.