11. Windows everywhere isn’t that valuable. Mary Jo Foley thinks that the “Windows, Not Walls” theme may incorporate Windows Mobile and Windows Live as well as Windows Vista, and she may well be right. But I use Vista. I use Windows Mobile. I use Windows Live. And using ’em all just doesn’t deliver an experience that’s better than choosing the best products and services you can find and making them work together, regardless of whether they hail from Redmond and have “Windows” in their name. Isn’t actually a point in Windows favor that you don’t need to use it everywhere?

12. The real way to tear down walls is to build stuff for the Web, not for a particular OS. As I’ve written before, in many ways Firefox is my platform these days–and since I can do nearly anything worth doing on the Web in Firefox on either a Windows PC or a Mac, I sometimes forget which OS I’m using. It simply doesn’t matter as much as it once did. That’s a story about Windows and walls, and it’s pretty exciting. Too bad it wouldn’t make for a very good Windows ad!

13. To what degree will these be Vista ads? The immediate goal, of course, is to move copies of Vista and PCs that run the OS. But I think there are signs that Microsoft is already trying to move past Vista and prepare itself for a Windows 7 launch that goes better than Vista’s spotty history to date. So I wouldn’t be surprised if the ads feel more like they’re about improving Windows’ image in general than bolstering Vista specifically–and if Microsoft sees them as an early salvo in the Windows 7 rollout, even though the chances of the ads mentioning Windows 7 directly are less than nil.

14. Will Microsoft address the Apple issue in these ads? Explicitly, probably not; implicitly, maybe. You could argue that it doesn’t need to–the percentage of computer users who use a Mac or are even considering one is dwarfed by that which never will. But taking Apple on in some fashion may prove irresistible. Nobody likes to get sucker-punched again and again by a smaller, less successful rival.

15. How would you slam Macs in a Windows ad, anyhow? You could point out the form factors they don’t come in. You could show applications they won’t run (at least not in OS X). You might even use price comparisons to argue that Windows PCs deliver better bang for the buck. All would be legitimate points to raise. I’m guessing, though, that Bill and Jerry won’t bring ’em up, or mention the words “Apple,” Mac,” “OS X,” “Leopard,” or “John Hodgman.”

16. Okay, now I’m having these visions of an anti-Apple Windows ad based on John McCain’s “celebrity” spots. With Vista as McCain and Apple as Obama, of course. “Higher prices…no Blu-Ray support…that’s the real Mac. I’m Windows Vista and I approved this message.”

17. Will Microsoft address the XP issue explicitly? Like it did, at least sort of, in its “Mojave Experiment” online ads? There are far more folks in the world running Windows XP than OS X, so you could argue that any attempt to get people excited about Vista is an implicit attempt to convince them that it’s better than XP. I can’t quite see Gates and Seinfeld even uttering the words “Windows XP,” though?

18. Will Microsoft eat crow? As it’s done, at least sort of, in a page on its Web site that acknowledges that Windows Vista frustrated early adopters? I really can’t see that happening in the new spots, entertaining though it would be to see Bill Gates fall to his knees and beg for forgiveness…

19. Is it possible to make ads that make a compelling, straightforward case for Windows? Sure. If I were making ’em, I would…

–Show cool computers with unique features that are available only with Vista–ones like the HP TouchSmart and Lenovo ThinkPad X300;

–Put the lie to the “Get a Mac” ads’ portrait of the PC as being good only for spreadsheets by showing Windows machines doing cool things with photos, videos, and music–maybe including excellent, Windows-only third-party apps like Nero, since Vista’s bundled media apps aren’t that enthralling;

–mention Blu-Ray, since Macs don’t have it;

–bring up gaming, since the argument for Windows is so overwhelming;

–somehow bring up Vista’s security edge over XP, even though “this product is less unsafe than the product of ours you’re using” isn’t that sexy a pitch.

I have no idea whether Microsoft will bring up any of these genuinely reasonable pro-Windows arguments in the new ads. Knowing $300 million ad budgets and Microsoft advertising in general, though, I think there’s a strong chance that the ads will be focus on fluffy, feel-good platitudes and/or make pro-Windows arguments that will be easy to poke holes in.

20. Getting people excited about Windows is hard. Really hard. Really, really hard. For an array of reasons, only some of which involve the product’s shortcomings. (Hey, it’s inherently easier to market an alternative choice like a Mac than a default one, like a Windows box.) So I have a hard time imagining any Windows ads being extraordinarily successful, or turning Windows skeptics into believers. And I’m certainly not alone. Maybe in a small way, that’ll turn out to be an advantage for this campaign: If your expectations for Windows advertising are low in the first place, the ads won’t have to be masterpieces to be better than you anticipated.

Okay, I’m done for now. Got any thoughts about any of the above, or new fodder for discussion? I’m all ears…

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