The Speculative Prehistory of the iPhone

What prelaunch coverage of the original iPhone can tell us about today's coverage of Apple's "iSlate."

By  |  Monday, December 28, 2009 at 1:34 am

Arnold Kim at MacRumors, December 13th, 2006:

Morgan Stanley analyst Rebecca F Runkle has “high conviction” that the iPhone will launch in the first half of 2007. In addition to this, she cites unnamed sources to provide some specs for the unreleased Apple phone:

– $599 for 4GB
– $649 for 8GB
– Wider than the iPod nano
– Thinner than the iPod Video
– Made of Metal
– Multiple colors, but at least including black, white, and silver
– Cingular Wireless is likely carrier in the U.S.
Update: Clarification: Runkle actually claimed: “full screen LCD; 3.5 inch (28×21)” and approximately 4/10ths of an inch thick. Also incorporates a Virtual Click wheel.

Scorecard: The iPhone debuted at different, lower prices: $499 for the 4GB model and $599 for the 8GB one. It didn’t come in multiple colors, and sported no click wheel of any sort. But it was indeed wider than the iPod Nano and thinner than the video-enabled iPod, and roughly 4/10th of an inch thick (.46″, to be exact). And yes, its screen in fact measured 3.5″.

Brian Lam at Gizmodo, December 17th, 2006:

Cisco rightfully owns the trademark for iPhone. And Apple can’t sue them or bully them into giving it up. The tech world had taken the title for granted, assumed it to be proper, plastered it over magazine covers, and now the name is lost. Which means Apple’s iPhone, if there even is an iPhone, will have to be named something else. It’s a big deal, if you think about what that name meant.

Scorecard: Name not lost. Despite Cisco’s launch of a VoIP phone called the iPhone, Apple called its cell phone the iPhone anyhow. Cisco sued, but the companies settled their differences.

Stéphane Dion at iPhone Freak, December 28th, 2006:

Expected iPhone specifications:

• Slide out keypad.

• Touch screen display.

• Combined MP3 player and phone, coming in two sizes, 4GB costing $249, and 8GB costing $449.

• Two batteries, one for the MP3 player and one for the phone, so you don’t run down your phone while listening to music.

• It going to made from Zirconia, a scratch resistant ceramic material that can be made into a variety of different colours including, white, black, navy blue, light blue, ivory, brown, platinum and gold.

Scorecard: The iPhone did have a touch screen, and did come in 4GB and 8GB varieties. But it didn’t have a slide-out keyboard, or two batteries, or a case made of zirconia. And the two models sold for $499 and $599, not $249 and $449.

Unbylined blogger at FierceCEO on January 1st, 2007:

Here’s what I think: Apple will announce two phones–one will ship immediately and the other will launch later this year. The first will be little more than an iPod Nano with basic phone capabilities while the latter will boast more advanced smartphone functions including real-time IM using Apple’s iChat platform (and by proxy, AOL and Jabber). Both phones will come in a shockingly small and sleek Nano-style case and will operate on a Cingular-run Apple network.

Scorecard: Apple released one phone, not two; it shipped on June 29th, 2007. It didn’t have IM. The iPhone was thin, but didn’t resemble the Nano in dimensions or style. And Apple didn’t launch wireless service under its own nameplate.

John Gruber at Daring Fireball, January 9th, 2007 (the morning of what turned out to be Jobs’ iPhone keynote):

Even just a few days ago, I did not expect to see Apple announce a phone this week. But over the weekend I flip-flopped, and I now think it’s more likely than not. Not a VOIP phone that depends on Wi-Fi or anything like that, but an honest-to-god mobile phone. It seems like there has to be some sort of “Wow, I thought maybe Apple would announce a phone but I didn’t think they’d do it like this!” factor, but damned if anyone knows what it is. My wild unlikely-but-wouldn’t-it-be-cool-as-shit guess: that it’s not an iPod phone, but rather the introduction of a new mobile device OS.

Scorecard: Good flip-flop! Yes, Apple announced a true mobile phone. Yes, it stunned people. And yes, it was not an iPod phone but a phone running a new mobile OS.

So what can we learn from all of the above? Mostly that a high percentage of the things reported about the iPhone turned out to hooey. Which was true because so many iPhone-watchers made similar mistakes:

They instinctively assumed the iPhone would be iPod-like. They therefore leaped to conclusions and envisioned something with a click wheel and iPod-like interface, and an emphasis on music. The iPhone turned out to have surprisingly little in common with the iPod–it had a totally different interface, and its most striking feature was not its music player but its Web browser.

They thought it would have much in common with other cell phones. Most of which had a numeric keypad and a smallish screen. That’s the biggest reason why none of the concept renderings are even vaguely reminiscent of the phone that Apple did design.

They knew that Apple might do something radically different, but few of them came anywhere near guessing correctly about what that radical something might be. There was lots of chatter about Apple sidestepping a traditional carrier relationship in favor of going into the wireless business. Didn’t happen. Surprisingly few Applewatchers guessed that Apple might come up with an utterly new user interface for mobile devices.

They didn’t do a great job of rendering verdicts on the plausibility of various rumors. In retrospect, the idea of Apple becoming a virtual wireless provider doesn’t make a lot of sense, since that business model was already in the process of failing at the time, and wouldn’t have let the company roll out the iPhone around the world. But I can’t find any evidence that anyone said so at the time.

They rehashed a gumbo of “facts” from multiple sources. The stuff that might actually have been leaked by insiders in the know got indiscriminately blended with iffy guesswork and bizarre fantasy, until it was tough to tell the difference. For instance, several stories about the iPhone rightly talked about it having a touchscreen, but nobody figured out that this was (A) true, and (B) one of the phone’s defining features.

Keep all of the above in mind as you read about the “iSlate.” Maybe it’s not just a giant iPhone/iPod Touch; maybe it packs innovations that nobody’s guessing at yet; maybe it’s called the iSlate, and maybe it isn’t. Don’t attach much credibility to rumors or opinions just because they come from a high-powered analyst. And don’t assume that any price points or distribution channels that anyone has thrown out have anything to do with upcoming reality.

Do, however, feel free to share your thoughts about the Apple tablet in the comments on this story. If the prehistory of the iPhone is any indication, you’ve got as good a shot at nailing it as most of the people who have weighed in so far…

More Apple history on Technologizer:

Apple Patentmania: 31 Years of Big Ideas

The Patents of Steve Jobs

Apple Rumors: The Early Years

Inside the Macintosh Portable

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33 Comments For This Post

  1. Dave Barnes Says:

    Harry,

    Congrats on the SlashDot appearance.

  2. mark Says:

    Thanks for this prehistory. I think you’re too harsh on your own predictions. Also looking back, it’s important to note that Apple claimed the switch to Intel was due to the important trend of low-power consumption mobile computing, and Intel also commented that it was eager to be a part of Apple’s gadgets in the lab (some of which it had seen). (As it turns out, Intel hasn’t been able to advance its tech enough to get Apple to use them in these handheld devices.) In sum, it’s clear that Apple had strategically focused on mobility way back in 2005 (and maybe earlier).

    Most of the current tablet rumors strike me as having real nuggets of truth, though it’s likely Apple is working on multiple products (7″, 10″) and the rumors are confusing which things are for which products. I think the 7″ is a larger iPod touch/iPhone (no Mac GUI so no Mac apps, PA Semi ARM chip) due in 1Q2010, and the 10″ is more of a MacBook Air sibling (Intel Core chip) but with a full touch GUI added to the Mac GUI due in 3Q2010.

  3. Armand Says:

    I read speculation, mostly following the iPhone reveal, that Apple may have “leaked” misinformation to mislead but satisfy the blogosphere’s hunger for iPhone news until Apple was ready to launch. Everything written about the “iSlate” should certainly be taken with a grain of salt until, to quote Harry, Steve Jobs pulls it from his jeans pocket at a keynote and pronounces it incredible. I wonder if Levi Strauss could make him a pair of jeans with a 7″ pocket. 😀

  4. Berend Schotanus Says:

    Great post!

    It is amazing how much all iPhone predictions looked like traditional cell phones while today all cell phones look like iPhones.

  5. Hamranhansenhansen Says:

    Fun article.

    > allegedly to be known–maybe–as iSlate

    My money is on the return of the “iBook”, now running iPhone OS.

  6. Hade Says:

    I think the most important thing we should be taking away from this is that whatever people expected the iPhone to be, it was almost always too much like what already existed at the time. The actual iPhone stunned people when it came out, not because it was a clever re-hash of an existing concept, but because in many ways, it was completely different from anything we’d ever seen before. Nobody expected to see a phone with no buttons. Nobody expected to see a real, desktop-caliber web browser in a pocket-sized device. Nobody really *expected* to see what Apple eventually gave us.

    Until I see a mock-up of the so-called iSlate that I consider revolutionary in at least one respect, I won’t be giving any of these tablet rumors much credence.

  7. Jeff Says:

    An extremely important article, which gets me to thinking that most rumors are no where remotely based on facts, but on “wishes”. People were building on other rumors instead of starting from scratch and looking to see what was theoretically possible at the time.

    For example, here are my “reasonable” predictions. They aren’t based on “insiders” or anything like that. They’re based on logic and nothing else (something that many rumors seem to ignore).

    1) Screen – between 7-10 inches in size. Anything smaller makes it harder to read a webpage. Anything larger and it can’t be comfortably held in one hand. Multi-touch (since it’s in all of their latest products), and likely supporting more than 2 fingers, since the iPhone 3GS supports 3 fingers, and the latest Apple trackpads support 4 fingers. More importantly, the Magic Mouse supports 2+ fingers, as well as ignoring parts of your hand. Plus, this correlates well with the story of a key former Apple employee stating that “Apple Tablet tech” is visible in other devices. As for resolution, I think 1280×720 is the ideal resolution for such a device. All of Apple’s “HD” content is 720p, as well as their iTunes LP and AppleTV content. Other resolutions would not give a crisp 1:1 pixel mapping. And NO OLED. Considering that recently the largest OLED screen was $2500 for 11″ from Sony, I think you can do the math to see what such a rumor makes absolutely no sense.

    2) Weight – screen size dictates the weight of the device. Definitely no more than 3lbs, as that becomes hard to hold with one hand. Likely 1-2lbs.

    3) Material – Plastic or aluminum? It is reasonable to suspect that the tablet will have the entire front be glass (no covered edge). Aluminum is far more durable than plastic, especially if it might be dropped (though this flies in the face of moving from aluminum to plastic for the iPhone 3G).

    4) Connectivity – WiFi is a given, but should it include 3G? What brand of 3G? Verizon? AT&T? Ideally, it’s best to manufacture one device, but wireless carriers aren’t really ready to support “data only” devices because of their insane charge schemes. And because AT&T is already hurting from the iPhone, and any tablet would be FAR worse, I don’t see 3G being put in to the first run of devices. It may be saved for a 2nd gen device, plus it’ll keep costs down.

    5) Hardware – Another point of contention. As far as I know, Apple does not have an x86 license, and Atom processors use way too much power for a “low power” device. Plus, they bought PA Semi, which is well known for it’s engineering division. Likely, the chip will be a custom ARM chip designed in-house as to keep prying eyes from replicating their work very easily. The GPU may be a variant of the PowerVR SGX series used in the iPhone 3GS. Any RAM or storage space numbers I write here would be made up, so I’m not going to bother.

    6) Software – No guessing here. The secret sauce is what makes Apple Apple, otherwise I wouldn’t be writing comments, I’d be a CEO of a company!

    7) Cost – the big one. We’ve seen $600-$1000 in rumors. The best thing going for Apple in it’s sales is not overlapping price points whenever possible for base configurations. This is what makes it dead simple to purchase a product from a store without wandering into different price categories. Any tablet price near a MacBook will make one wonder why you should get a tablet instead of a MacBook, something Apple tries it’s hardest to avoid. On the other hand, what kind of tablet can be made by Apple for $500 while retaining the same quality we’ve come to expect? My guess? $599-699. Sure, it costs more than a netbook, just like the iPhone did when it first came out. But it’s the utility of the product that matters far more. And when you realize that people spent $300 just to read books on a Kindle, pricing for multi-function devices isn’t as simple as “it costs a ton, I’ll never buy it”.

    I wonder how much of what I wrote will be right. We’ll see. 🙂

  8. Ben Says:

    Great article. The one thing that’s missing (and probably forever will be) are the iPhone prototypes. Much of the misinformation during this time, may be due to the incredibly long development cycle of the iPhone, and prototype models that might have been completely scrapped.

  9. christopher Says:

    wow… some of those early version were really bad.

  10. James Bailey Says:

    Interesting article and well researched. Thanks.

    I personally doubt that there will be multiple tablet models at launch or any time near the launch. That just isn’t how Apple goes about introducing new platforms. They don’t want to muddy the water with too much confusion. Instead, they take the road that is most likely to appeal to the buying public (as opposed to the blogo-sphere.)

    I think it is somewhat likely that Apple introduces a single tablet model in early 2010. I think it is also likely that they introduce a second model of the iPhone sometime in 2010 as well. It is about time for Apple to target the lower end of the smartphone market just as they did with the iPod with the release of the iPod mini. The iPod was released October 2001. The iPod mini was introduced January of 2004. Perhaps the iPhone mini will be a CDMA/EVDO phone.

  11. Paul Johnson Says:

    I think your prehistory concentrates a bit too much on trade journalist/blogger comments about the possible design of the iPhone and not enough with other conceptualizations that appeared outside of the traditional spheres of journalistic comment. In particular, the iTalk concept video by Christopher De Santis that appeared on YouTube in May 2006 stimulated the imaginations of many people about how beautiful and useful a touchscreen-based Apple cellphone could be. For those who are interested, the video is still available at http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4296efmOWLs. Other than the double flip phone design, which is very attractive in that it preserves the Mac aluminum look but is not practical in use with its sharp edges and foldover layout, the mockup comes very close to the actual iPhone.

    The problem with the proposed Apple tablet is that we lack similar visualizations of how it would operate. The Microsoft Courier concept video is a pitiful remake of the old 1998 Apple Knowledge Navigator that seems primarily designed to promote vaporware and spread FUD. The closest concept videos I have seen that stimulate the imagination are the recent digital magazine mockups, like the Sports Illustrated and Time Inc videos on YouTube, although that would only represent a small part of the functionality of an Apple tablet.

  12. carkitter Says:

    The problem with most of the speculation is that it is starting from the wrong place – specification. We really should think about what sort of device Apple needs right now to make another pile of money, what market it can revolutionize. We should be looking for the business case for the device rather than creating imaginary gaps in the product range. I don’t see the raison d’etre at this stage.

  13. Valentijn Says:

    Think different.

  14. Joe Says:

    I actually know iPhone OS designer and to be honest they are scared to talk, not just because of their job security but overall. But one thing is for sure, it is coming as GSM and will be sold on Apple website for all carriers.

  15. |☼◙ Avenger ◙☼| Says:

    I wish I have iphone 🙁

  16. KenC Says:

    I vaguely recall Katie Huberty of Morgan Stanley got the specs of the iPhone correct, a couple days before MWSF. Strange since she’s been so wrong about everything else.

  17. jeffb Says:

    Basically, what I’ve concluded is that the people at Apple are a lot smarter than people who write blogs about Apple. Apple believes in the R&D department. They look for what’s next, what’s deep in the bowels of the research institutions, ideas discussed only among academics and scientists, ideas and technologies that your average journalist and blogger simply isn’t educated enough to understand (know any bloggers on Techmeme who read IEEE journal?), then figure out how to put those technologies in consumer products today, not 20 years from now. That’s why you gotta love Apple, if you hate Apple (odd paradox I know, but there are plenty of us who don’t drink the cool aid but respect the hell of the company’s accomplishments). -s

  18. antmeeks Says:

    Great article.

    I think the new Mac “tablet” product will be less about the product itself and more about the interface / I/O / OS advances. It seems logical to assume that the Touch OS will eventually subsume the current Mac OS, and this iteration will represent more progress towards that end… IE: proper file system management & access, multiple 3rd party software running concurrently, etc. I expect that the OS itself will be renamed to something more general, and perhaps even iTunes could be renamed as well (overdue). It’s possible that a complimentary way of interacting with this OS will be via voice commands. I would also expect that a tablet would be capable of pairing with a bluetooth keyboard and perhaps touchpad with a complete gesture library for more traditional computing. But I definitely believe the real story is going to be the advances in the OS.

  19. mrboma Says:

    “Apple might come up with an utterly new user interface for mobile devices.”

    Seriously? Rows of icons in a touch interface is not a new mobile interface at all. Look at the Newton, the Palm Pilot, and even (dare I say) Windows CE. This is the standard user interface for hand held touch screen mobile computing devices going back to 1990. Rare in a phone for sure, but not revolutionary in a mobile computing device by any stretch of the imagination.

    The real thing that threw people was the size of the iPhone and the computing power inside. Phones and iPods had been trending ever smaller, so few people predicted a large screen device that could accommodate a traditional touch screen interface. And fewer still predicted the iPhone would truly be a mobile computing platform that would need such an interface.

  20. Sir Pent Says:

    So the question is, what will Apple do next? And will it include music from the band LIZARDS FROM AFAR? They give their music away for free on their website:
    http://reverbnation.com/lizardsfromafar

  21. Rash Says:

    Great article, Really appreciate the download … The speculations and rumors about the upcoming Apple tablets and again sounding similar to what happened before the iPhone was launched

  22. Ross Bodman Says:

    i originally wanted to get the iphone but spent hours searching the net on http://www.allaboutthemoney.net

    i took part in surveys, read reviews and the only thing that out me off was the fact the so many batteries have exploded while owners are using them. not really something i would like to happen next to my face

  23. theseditionist Says:

    You either missed a piece or only alluded to it. I recall a piece based on a patent filing that referred to a touchscreen with virtual… actually, don’t recall whether it was a clickwheel, telephone dial or what. However, what was interesting is that it was dead-on accurate. Except it was a perfect description of the Touch and not so accurate a piece predicting the phone. At the time it of course got the fanboys frothing but when the Touch actually debuted, it was greeted with not very much excitement, the phone having debuted between rumor and announcement.

  24. Andy Click Says:

    Not to mention that the iPhone didn’t support MMS when it was launched…

  25. Mark Says:

    I noticed the manufacturers house leaked the iPhone’s creation before Apple did. Very intrguing ideed to see them do that. :-#

  26. Ryan Adler Says:

    New Apple products are traditionally presented as solving an existing problem. With the iPhone, Steve came out and mentioned that he wanted to solve the problems of existing mobile phones just not being very good.

    I think we need to answer the question, “What problem would Apple be trying to solve with the iSlate?” Once we know the answer to that, we would probably be going in the right direction to get an idea of what the product will be…

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  38. iPhone rumors revisited Says:

    […] one of his exhaustive topical examinations, this time turning his bespectacled gaze towards the iPhone. Like the iSlate or the iTablet or the iNinjaStar, analysts, journos, and bloggers frothed at the […]

  39. iPhone rumors revisited | Products & Tech News Says:

    […] one of his exhaustive topical examinations, this time turning his bespectacled gaze towards the iPhone. Like the iSlate or the iTablet or the iNinjaStar, analysts, journos, and bloggers frothed at the […]

  40. A Look at the iPhones that Weren’t and the iSlate that Might Be | Hitech Zone Says:

    […] McCracken’s Technologizer looks back to pre-2007 and the ridiculous amount of hype and — comical in hindsight — […]

  41. O que a cobertura do iPhone original diz sobre a do tablet Apple » AppleMania.info Says:

    […] mais e veja as imagens das previsões sobre o iPhone original no artigo completo de McCrancker. Tags:iPhone, tablet     Tópicos relacionadosRumor: iPhone 3G iminente, […]

  42. Entelligence: iSlate or just uWish? « DIGITALTABLETS.ORG Says:

    […] McCracken has a great post on Technologizer reviewing the tremendous buzz around the iPhone right before it launched — it was about three […]

  43. A Look at the iPhones that Weren’t and the iSlate that Might Be | Cell Phone Infoz Says:

    […] McCracken’s Technologizer looks back to pre-2007 and the ridiculous amount of hype and — comical in hindsight — […]

  44. Tal vez no es buena idea hacerle caso a los rumores | ALT1040 Says:

    […] Technolizer Leer más: Apple, BlackBerry, CNET, iPhone, Michelle Meyers, RIM Enviar a Twitter Compartir en […]

  45. Quais serão mais quentes: os rumores sobre a iSlate ou os rumores sobre o iPhone original? | MacMagazine Says:

    […] o que temos ouvido a respeito da mítica tablet com uma maçã no verso, o pessoal do Technologizer compilou rumores e mockups do iPhone. Quem acertou e quem errou não vem ao caso, mas o tanto que erraram chega a ser […]

  46. O iPhone seria um lixo se os boatos sobre ele fossem verdadeiros | ZooM Tecnológico - Só mais um blog de tecnologia Says:

    […] blog Technologizer fez um resumo da cobertura pré-iPhone do iPhone, e estas são algumas das especulações tragicômicas mais erradas sobre o […]

  47. Top Posts — WordPress.com Says:

    […] The Speculative Prehistory of the iPhone Remember the very first iPhone–the one that sold for $249, had an iconic click wheel, a cool slide-out keypad, […] […]

  48. Rumores… al final, que equivocados estábamos « Iphone 3GS, Iphone 3G, Iphone Classic, Ipod Touch, Juegos Iphone en MoViC.cl - Todo para tu Iphone - Utilidades - Apps - Noticias - Descargas - Juegos Says:

    […] Technologizer ha publicado un curioso artículo sobre la “Prehistoria especulativa del iPhone” en el que recopilan algunos de los rumores más sonados sobre el teléfono de Apple. Es curioso ver a como la gente de The New York Times, Business 2.0, PC World, Chicago Tribune o iLounge compartían algo en común: todos daban palos de ciego tratando de unir una declaración de aquí y un rumor de allá con las esperanzas particulares de cada cual para imaginar un producto que al final no tuvo nada que ver. […]

  49. Get your News: Get live news from all around the world » Entelligence: iSlate or just uWish? Says:

    […] McCracken has a great post on Technologizer reviewing the tremendous buzz around the iPhone right before it launched — it was about three […]

  50. looking back on iphone speculation Says:

    […] The Speculative Prehistory of the iPhone […]

  51. iSlate – Revolutioniert Apple auch die Verlagsbranche? / tba. Says:

    […] könnte man “on the go” benutzen. Interessant in dem Zusammenhang übrigens folgender Artikel der die Gerüchte vor dem iPhone noch einmal […]

  52. History says that… « IFapp’s Weblog Says:

    […] The Speculative Prehistory of the iPhone by Technologizer. […]

  53. A Look at the iPhones that Weren’t and the iSlate that Might Be | iPhone Info Says:

    […] McCracken’s Technologizer looks back to pre-2007 and the ridiculous amount of hype and — comical in hindsight — […]

  54. A Look at the iPhones that Weren’t and the iSlate that Might Be | iPhone Info Says:

    […] McCracken’s Technologizer looks back to pre-2007 and the ridiculous amount of hype and — comical in hindsight — […]

  55. Friday Night Links (1/1/2010)… | The Digitante Says:

    […] Speculative Prehistory of the iPhone (http://thedig.in/8w) – Ever wonder what everyone was saying about the iPhone before they knew there was an iPhone? Some got it dead on by suggesting touchscreen, gaming, and GPS. Others looked like big goofballs by suggesting that Apple and BlackBerry were teaming up for a device called the AppleBerry. Stop it. In a couple of years I plan on running a similar post to this with a link to the Speculative Prehistory of the iSlate. Or whatever the heck it ends up being called. […]

  56. A Look at the iPhones that Weren’t and the iSlate that Might Be | iTravelAlert Says:

    […] McCracken’s Technologizer looks back to pre-2007 and the ridiculous amount of hype and — comical in hindsight — […]

  57. Mike Jr | My thoughts on life, business & technology. » Redefine It Says:

    […] A week or two ago, I was reading an article on technologizer.com titled “The Speculative Prehistory of the iPhone.”  (click here for the article) […]

  58. The Apple Tablet: What Will Be, According to You Says:

    […] The iPhones that weren't […]

  59. Snap Judgments! The Early iPhone Skepticism Says:

    […] The iPhones that weren't […]

  60. urbandesire» Blogarchiv » links for 2010-03-21 Says:

    […] The Speculative Prehistory of the iPhone Eine Zusammenfassung des paradigmatischen Rumors um das Erscheinen des Iphones. Im Prinzip nur sinnlos, da ich vermute, dass all dies irgendwie nur für Apple gilt und keine Rückschlüsse auf das Erscheinen von Produktneuheiten anderer Firmen lässt. (tags: apple iphone ipad social medien) […]