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Pachter: New Consoles in 2013, “If At All”

Posted by Jared Newman on May 1, 2009 at 2:57 pm

wii-360-ps3Remember when Technologizer wildly guessed that the next generation of game consoles would arrive in 2010 and 2011? Michael Pachter, the Wedbush Morgan analyst who routinely makes headlines with his predictions, begs to differ.

His latest newsletter, via Edge, states that the next console cycle won’t begin “before 2013, if at all.” That’s right, Morgan even leaves room for the possibility of an indefinite current-generation.

“We remain convinced that the publishers will resist the introduction of any video game hardware technology that requires a refresh of software, as the publishers have as yet to capitalize on the immense investments made in being competitive in the current cycle,” Pachter writes.

The flaw in this logic is that it’s not a new concept. As a rule, console makers love to cash in on their investments, letting software revenues roll in while hardware costs decline, and yet new consoles have been popping up on a five-year cycle ever since the 8-bit era.

There is, however, a wild card this time, and I’m surprised Pachter doesn’t mention it: Motion control. Nintendo tapped into previously uninterested markets with the Wii, and there’s no shortage of speculation that Sony and Microsoft are looking to get in on that. Rumors regarding a Playstation 3 motion controller have popped up as recently as today, and we’ve previously covered one possibility for the Xbox 360.

It all boils down to whether Sony and Microsoft get into motion control (or some other game-changing concept) in this generation or save it for the next cycle. I won’t predict whether that’s going to happen, but if it does — and if it’s successful — then yes, the next generation is a long way off. Otherwise, I’m sticking with my earlier predictions.

Am I waffling? Sure, but that’s why Pachter gets the big bucks.

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Palm’s Foleo: Back From the Dead?

Posted by Harry McCracken on May 1, 2009 at 1:56 pm

Jeff HawkinsI was one of the few tech journalists who didn’t mock Palm’s Foleo device when founder Jeff Hawkins unveiled it at D two years ago–see my fuzzy photo to the left–and who chose not to tapdance on its grave when Palm decided not to release it after all. (Um, actually I may have been the only pundit who treated the Foleo, which was a sort of browser-in-a-subnotebook-that-talked-to-your-wireless-phone, with a shred of respect.)

So I like today’s rumor that the Foleo was not dead, but just resting: Analyst Trip Chowdry says that Palm has some iPod veterans working on a new version. If he’s correct, I don’t expect the blogosphere to formally retract all the nasty things it said in 2007. But it’s undeniable that the notion of a cheap, small computer that’s designed mostly to run Web apps rather than client software is no longer deserving of contempt: We now know the concept as the netbook, and it seems to be doing just fine in the market.

In other words, Jeff Hawkins wasn’t dumb, he was just ahead of his time–something which anybody who’s followed Hawkins’ career should have been able to figure out in the first place.

There’s actually every reason to think that Palm is indeed working on a new Foleo–because when CEO Ed Colligan killed the first one, he said it would be back, and it would be based on the platform which we now know is called WebOS:

Jeff Hawkins and I still believe that the market category defined by Foleo has enormous potential. When we do Foleo II it will be based on our new platform, and we think it will deliver on the promise of this new category. We’re not going to speculate now on timing for a next Foleo, we just know we need to get our core platform and smartphones done first.

Which doesn’t mean that I’m assuming Chowdry is right. He’s the same guy who said he believed that Costco would be selling $149 iPhones last January, and who saw Google losing its technical edge to search startup Powerset a couple of years ago. But in this case, I’m guessing that Chowdry, like Hawkins, has the right instincts–and the only question is whether he got the timing right,

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Quicken for iPhone: Good, as Far as It Goes

Posted by Harry McCracken on May 1, 2009 at 12:26 pm

Quicken LogoIntuit, the company whose Quicken has been synonymous with personal-finance management for years, has brought the app to the iPhone. It’s not the first version of Quicken for handheld devices–I used an earlier one on my PalmPilot years ago–but it’s the first modern one. And as its name, Quicken Online Mobile, suggests, it connects directly to the Net to grab your financial details rather than making you sync with the desktop app.

Actually, it doesn’t work with the traditional application version of Quicken at all–it’s a companion to Quicken Online, the Web-based version which relaunched in a free version last fall. If you’re like me, you tend to associate use of Quicken with personal-finance nerds who have their acts together, track everything carefully, and are on the road to a happy and prosperous retirement. Quicken Online isn’t aimed at those people: It’s got relatively few features, is heavy on automation (like Mint, it downloads transactions from your banks and credit-card companies automatically), and most of what it does is focused on making sure that you’ve got enough money to get to your next paycheck. Quicken Online Mobile brings that approach to the iPhone and iPod Touch, and does a nice job at it. You can see what you’ve spent and what you’ve made, and the home screen tallies everything up and tells you whether you’re in any risk of running out of dough.

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Apple is Headhunting Gaming Executives

Posted by David Worthington on April 30, 2009 at 9:31 pm

The evidence keeps coming that Apple is getting serious about gaming. In just the past week, the company has hired a senior Xbox executive from Microsoft, and earlier this week, a graphics expert from ATI. Apple’s headhunting follows its investment in a graphics chip maker in December.

Today, Gizmodo reported that Apple now employs Richard Teversham, the former senior European director of business, insights and strategy for the Xbox. Bob Drebin, CTO of AMD’s graphics group, and creator of Nintendo GameCube’s graphic chip, joined Apple earlier this week.

In December, Apple took a 3.6% ownership stake in UK-based chip maker Imagination, and licensed its PowerVR graphics technology. PowerVR provides advanced graphics capabilities including OpenGL ES 2.0 support, and shader-based 3D graphics.

iPhone games are becoming more clever, and the platform’s library of titles is increasing day by day. While most next generation iPhone rumors are vague, Apple’s gaming-related investments are transparent. It’ll be fascinating to see what the results are.

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GameStop Looks Into the Future, Sees Trouble

Posted by Jared Newman on April 30, 2009 at 2:37 pm

gamestopsignIt’s easy to imagine video games without discs or cartridges, but this downloadable future could spell disaster for GameStop. In a recent SEC filing, the world’s largest game retailer acknowledged that it sees the writing on the wall:

While it is currently only possible to download a limited amount of video game content to the next generation video game systems, at some point in the future, this technology may become more prevalent. If advances in technology continue to expand our customers’ ability to access video games, PC entertainment software and incremental content for their games through these and other sources, our customers may no longer choose to purchase video games or PC entertainment software in our stores.

This is sort of obvious, but as Gamasutra notes, in past filings GameStop has only referred to classic downloadable titles (such as Nintendo’s Virtual Console offerings) when discussing this subject matter. Never before has the company been so ominous about its ability to sell games of all kinds.

The gloom is appropriate as rumors abound regarding Sony’s next PSP handheld console. It would be the first time a major manufacturer dropped physical media entirely in favor of downloads and built-in memory. Handhelds are an ideal place to start with this business model, but come the next generation of home consoles, I wouldn’t be surprised if most games were offered for download, even if the disc-based model sticks around.

After writing about the PSP yesterday, it occurred to me that there’s still plenty of room for GameStop in a downloadable future, but not as it exists now. A better GameStop would mimic the resurgence of hands-on tech outlets, like the Apple Store, but with incentives for customers to purchase games at the store instead of at home. I’d like to see frequent buyer cards and an atmosphere that encourages try before you buy, to name a couple ideas. Download codes and kiosks may save GameStop from obsolescence, but it’ll take forward thinking, not fear, for the retailer to maintain its dominance.

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Palm's First Post-Pre Phone?

Posted by Harry McCracken on April 30, 2009 at 1:13 pm

One major bright spot during Palm’s recent rocky history has been the success of its Centro–a Palm OS device that’s cheap, small, simple, and a best-seller. Even once the far fancier Pre is out, you’d think that Palm wouldn’t want to abandon the low end of the market. And it looks like you’d be right: Engadget has a photo and some other details on a WebOS phone allegedly called the Eros Eos which is allegedly coming to AT&T. If it’s real, it looks like the Centro’s successor. And even if it’s someone’s fantasy…well, the basic idea is so logical that I’d be stunned if Palm doesn’t come up with something similar. And with the Pre debuting exclusively on Sprint, it also makes perfect sense for the company to have something else it can sell via other carriers to keep its partnerships with them from fading away.

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Windows 7 Release Candidate: The Rollout Begins. Rockily.

Posted by Harry McCracken on April 30, 2009 at 12:39 pm

Windows 7When Microsoft set a release schedule for the Windows 7 Release Candidate–which will apparently be the last major version before it finalizes the OS–it said that members of its TechNet service for IT types would get it on April 30th, and everyone else would have to wait until May 5th. If that was to ensure trouble-free downloads for everyone involved, it didn’t work: As Ed Bott reports, a database glitch prevented a lot of TechNet members from getting the download.

I had trouble myself, at first–but now, the download seems to be proceeding properly. I plan to install the RC on both a general-purpose notebook and a netbook, and look forward to sharing impressions. And if you snag the RC–either right now or at any time between now and general release–I’d love to know what you think.

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Disney Does the Hulu

Posted by Harry McCracken on April 30, 2009 at 8:17 am

Disney HuluHulu was already by far the most ambitious and interesting purveyor of free video from traditional sources on the Web. Today, it’s taking a great big step towards solidifying its lead: The Walt Disney Company is joining NBC and Fox as a partner in the venture, getting an ownership stake and providing content it owns.

The deal will bring shows such as Lost, Grey’s Anatomy, Desperate Housewives, Scrubs, and Jimmy Kimmel Live to Hulu, along with old episodes of Dancing With the Stars and Who Wants to Be a Millionaire, plus stuff from other Disney outfits like the ABC Family Channel and SOAPNEt. Movies from the Disney library will also be available.

Me, I’m most interested in the one type of content that first leaps to mind when you think of the word “Disney.” That would be classic animation in short-subject and feature-length form. Oddly enough, that’s just about the only thing that isn’t mentioned specifically in the announcement. Mickey, Minnie, Dumbo, and Bambi, where are you?

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