Tag Archives | Smartphones

Your WWDC Predictions: Not Perfect, But Not Bad!

Posted by Harry McCracken on June 8, 2009 at 11:45 pm

Apple WWDC PredictionsQuick, you guys: Quit your jobs, team up with each other, and form a research firm specializing in Apple punditry. As a group, your predictions would likely be significantly closer to being on-target than those of a bunch of well-known analyst firms where serious moolah is made guessing what Steve Jobs and company are working on.

That, at least, is my conclusion after conducting an experiment that I called Technologizer’s WWDC Prediction Challenge. I invited Technologizer community members to take a survey involving WWDC predictions, then tallied the results and considered any prediction to be official if the majority of survey respondents made it. You didn’t get every single data point right–and failed to anticipate the major changes Apple made to its laptop lineup–but your iPhone predictions were very close to perfect (unlike those of many bloggers and analysts). Overall, I’m impressed–and I think I’ll repeat the experiment before future Apple product launches.

After the jump, a full accounting of how your guesses squared with WWDC reality.

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The T-Grid: Palm Pre vs. iPhone 3G S

Posted by Harry McCracken on June 8, 2009 at 11:11 pm

So much about Apple’s new iPhone was revealed through rumor ahead of time that I prepared a provisional grid comparing it to the Palm Pre a couple of weeks ago. Now that everything’s official, I dug out that grid for an updating and to make any necessary corrections–and found that about 98 percent of the specs I filled in for the iPhone to Be Named Later turned out to accurately describe the iPhone 3G S.

After the jump. lots and lots of specs for the summer’s two most notable smartphones. As usual, I’m not claiming that you can use this list to determine which phone is better (especially since the 3G S remains an unreleased product as I write this). But it’s still fun to see how they compare.

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Will iMadness Descend on June 19th?

Posted by Harry McCracken on June 8, 2009 at 4:36 pm

iPhone KidHere in the U.S., the phenomenon of iMadness has occurred twice in known history. Once was on Friday, June 29th 2007, when the original iPhone was released (and I took the photo tothe  left of a very small boy dressed as a very large iPhone  outside the Apple Store in San Francisco’s Union Square). The second time was on July 11th, 2008, when the iPhone 3G went on sale.

In both instances, thousands of otherwise normal people woke up at 2am and stood in line outside Apple Stores and AT&T Stores for hours simply to become among the first consumers to own a new cell phone. Even though there was no shortage of said phones, and even though other consumers were able to stroll into the same stores shortly thereafter and buy iPhones with little or no wait.

(In the case of the iPhone 3G, there were residual signs of iMadness for many days afterwards–when I happened by Apple Stores, there were usually lines (not long, but lines nonetheless) ouside of people patiently waiting to buy new iPhones.)

The iPhone 3G S goes on sale on June 19th. Will iMadness reappear? It’s an interesting question, and I’m not sure about the answer. It’s in Apple and AT&T’s interest to stoke the release for everything it’s worth, obviously. If they announce special opening hours or other out-of-the-ordinary plans for the 19th, we’ll know that they hope to strike lightning for the third year running.

On the other hand, the 3G S is neither the first iPhone nor the first affordable high-speed one.  It’s a nice new phone. (It’s also the first iPhone not to benefit from a Steve Jobs demo–Phil Schiller simply made it feel like a neat upgrade with some cool new features, not an Important Moment in World History.) Many of the folks who wanted an iPhone have one now, and relatively few of them will ante up to buy a 3G S. And some of the people who want iPhones but don’t yet have them will opt for a $99 iPhone 3G, which is available right now. And some of the people who do want the 3G S will figure out that they can probably buy one on day of launch without much waiting by sauntering in someetime in the late afternoon or early evening.

My guess is that there will be scattered outbreaks of iMadness, including people with beach chairs hanging out at Apple Stores at midnight. Maybe even little kids inexplicably dressed as smartphones. But this will be the most sane iPhone rollout to date. Probably. Any other predictions?

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WWDC’s Big Loser: AT&T

Posted by Harry McCracken on June 8, 2009 at 3:28 pm

AT&T FrownyI’m used to hearing whoops of delight from the crowd at Apple product launches. Even the occasional gasp of blissful disbelief. Snickers of derision, however, are not a standard feature. Yet that’s what AT&T, the iPhone’s sole U.S. carrier, prompted this morning at Apple’s WWDC keynote.

During the discussion of the iPhone 3.0 software’s new support for MMS messaging, we were told that 29 carriers would be ready at the software update’s launch–nine days from now–to support it. But we were also told that AT&T would not be among them–it’ll support MMS only at some unspecified date later this summer. Initial signs of discontent from the audience.

Next, we heard about 3.0’s eagerly-anticipated support for tethering as a wireless modem. The logos of 22 carriers who are ready to go  appeared on-screen. The audience scanned them for the AT&T logo, and when Ma Bell wasn”t even mentioned, it knew that the company wasn’t among them. Despite the fact that it said tethering was coming “soon” seven months ago.

By the time Phil Schiller talked about how the iPhone 3G S would let you share video via MMS if your carrier supported it, a rueful chuckle rolled through the audience, and it was extremely obvious why.

AT&T’s network has been commonly regarded as the iPhone’s weakest link for as long as there have been iPhones (especially 3G ones): High-speed coverage remains spotty, tales of the network being brought to its knees by too many iPhones in one place are common, and both dropped calls and inexplicably slow browser performance are common. It’s conceivable that some problems that folks tend to blame on the network are in fact Apple software glitches, and the fact that the phone is on AT&T at least means that it’s usable almost everywhere in the world. But I’ve met lots of iPhone users who see AT&T as a problem, and few if any who have mentioned the carrier as a principal virtue.

At this morning’s event. the fact that AT&T is the sole U.S. carrier was downright embarrassing–even if there are legitimate reasons why it’s not ready to support two key features of the iPhone’s new software.

It all reminded me a bit of where the Motorola/IBM PowerPC processor stood right before Apple announced it was moving to the faster, more power-efficient Intel architecture. The chances of Apple leaving AT&T are zero. But you gotta wonder whether the carrier’s inability to keep pace with Apple and dozens of other carriers, and the response from the public as represented by the people in the WWDC audience, is a prelude to the iPhone–or some iPhone, at least–showing up on Verizon relatively soon. I mean, if you ran Verizon, wouldn’t you see this as a gigantic opportunity to lure Apple’s business and make your customers happy?

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The Truth About Physical Keyboards

Posted by Harry McCracken on June 7, 2009 at 10:58 pm

TypewriterIf you wanted to place a bet on tomorrow’s WWDC keynote news (which we’ll cover live) that was such a longshot that it would pay off spectacularly if you turned out to be right, it would make sense to put money down on the possibility that Apple will unveil an iPhone with a physical keyboard. It’s not just that Steve Jobs snarked at the very idea of “tiny plastic keys” when he first announced the iPhone. It’s also that the phone has sold so spectacularly without one. Whatever you think of the iPhone’s on-screen keyboard, it’s hard to make a case that it’s stood in the way of sales.

And yet smartphones with physical keyboards also remain popular–such as the Palm Pre, the most interesting iPhone rival so far–and there’s no sign that the iPhone’s massive popularity will lead anyone to declare real keyboards to be obsolete anytime soon.

I thought about this as I read John Gruber’s thoughts about the Palm Pre on Daring Fireball, in which he contends that the only people who are likely to opt for a Pre over an iPhone because of the physical keyboard are those who already own phones with QWERTY keyboards (such as BlackBerries). John’s take: Both real and virtual QWERTY keyboards are much better than trying to enter alphanumeric characters via a phone dialpad, and the iPhone’s keyboard is far from lousy. As usual, his rational is well-reasoned and clearly explained.

I do, however, think he’s selling the virtues of tiny plastic keys a little short. They’ve got at least four benefits, two of which are pretty obvious and two of which are less so.

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Will the iPhone 3.0 Upgrade Be Available Next Week?

Posted by Harry McCracken on June 5, 2009 at 6:36 pm

I don’t want to start any wild rumors, but here’s an intriguing comment that just got added to the post I wrote way back in early November when AT&T Wireless’s CEO said that iPhone users would “soon” be able to tether their phones to their laptops as wireless modems:

Andy Mc Says:
June 5th, 2009 at 4:46 pm I spoke to an AT&T store rep today, and he DISCOURAGED me from buying their laptop connect card and $60/month plan. Instead, he told me to wait until June 9, gave me his card, and said to call back to add the tethering plan to my current iPhone for $30/month more.

June 9th, of course, is the day after Apple’s WWDC keynote, an event at which it would not be startling to learn that tethering is finally ready to roll. Tethering is enabled by the iPhone 3.0 software. Does that mean that part of Monday’s WWDC keynote will be the news that iPhone 3.0 is ready for immediate downloading by iPhone owners?

Maybe. Blog comments aren’t utterly reliable, and neither is the advice of random phone-store reps. But it’s something to chew on, at least. And it feels more plausible than the new iPhone hardware being available on Monday.

I make no predictions, but hope that the clerk Andy talked to knew what he was talking about and had loose lips…

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Four Reasons I Don’t Think the New iPhone Will Be Available on Monday

Posted by Harry McCracken on June 5, 2009 at 6:22 pm

GearLive’s Andru Edwards thinks that the new iPhone–let’s call it the iPhone Video–will not only be announced on Monday but available in Apple Stores the same day. It’s not entirely clear what prompted him to say this–he headlines it as a prediction and then says it’s “likely” to happen, then simply states without hedging “Yes, you will be able to pick up the next version of the iPhone on Monday, if you get to an Apple Store before they sell out.” He says that he thinks iPhone OS 3.0 is ready to go and that Apple would like to put a crimp in Palm and Sprint’s release of the Pre on Saturday. And then he talks about “sources” who say “the stars are in alignment” for Apple Stores to have the iPhone Video on Monday.

In other words, it’s not entirely clear whether his story is based on wishful thinking, attempted logical deduction, investigative reporting, or some combination thereof. In any case, it seems like an extremely unlikely scenario to me. Here’s why:

1. FCC approval. The iPhone Video will have to get it, and it’s really hard to keep the phone secret once it’s started that process. By announcing the phone on Monday but not shipping it instantly, Apple gives itself a buffer to get the phone approved.

2. iPhonemania. With both the first iPhone and the iPhone 3G, Apple created tech-hype history by whipping gadgethounds into such a frenzy that throngs lined up at the crack of dawn to buy phones. It’s likely that the iPhone Video won’t create quite the same madness–it’s neither the first iPhone nor the first 3G one–but I’d think that Apple would like to stoke some initial crazy excitement. If the phone’s simply available the first day anybody knows about it, it can’t. (That would be like releasing a summer blockbuster movie that nobody knows about for sure beforehand.)

3. It’s not just about the Apple Store. Even if we assume for the moment that the iPhone Video will debut in the U.S. only, the phone will be for sale in Apple Stores, AT&T stores, Best Buy, and Wal-Mart. Presumably those last three merchants would be nonplussed if the phone was only available in Apple’s own outlets on the day of announcement. And while it’s not utterly inconceivable that all the iPhone sellers are ready to put the phone on sale on Monday, it would be an impressive achievement to keep the phone secret with so many folks involved in preparations already.

4. Apple doesn’t need to to release it on Monday to respond to the Pre. Even if you accept the notion that Apple is worried enough about the Pre to think it needs to plan strategy to respond to its release, it doesn’t need to have iPhones on store shelves on Monday. Anyone who’s completely entranced by the Pre will try to buy one this weekend; Monday is too late to prevent that. But most people who might buy a Pre won’t do so this weekend–they will, very sensibly, give it some thought and see what their other options are, and they already know that it’s dead certain that a new-and-improved iPhone will be available soon. If Apple announces a new iPhone on Monday, it’ll surely be a matter of weeks at most before it goes on sale. Virtually nobody who really wants an iPhone Video will opt for the Pre instead simply because it’s available a bit sooner.

I’m not saying the chances of GearLive’s prophecy coming true are zero.  Just that if it is true, it’ll be one of the more startling things Apple has ever done…


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The Palm Pre Revealed: The Technologizer Review

Posted by Harry McCracken on June 4, 2009 at 5:00 am

Palm Pre RevealedIs it possible to out-iPhone the iPhone? Again and again, we’ve seen other manufacturers come up with phones that try so very hard to look and work like Apple’s blockbuster, such as this one, this one, and this one. Some beat the iPhone on specs; none has come close to matching its appeal, imagination, or sales. For all the poseurs out there, the iPhone still feels like a product in a category of one, nearly two years after it first shipped.

But maybe the way to truly rival the iPhone is to counterpunch. What if a phone ignored some of the iPhone’s most obvious virtues, choosing to zig where Apple zagged? What if it aimed to rival not the iPhone’s look and feel but its spectacular record of innovation? What if the overarching goal was to be a really good, really inventive next-generation smartphone?

What, in other words, if it were Palm’s new Pre?

Back at the Consumer Electronics Show in January, Palm unveiled the Pre with one of the most startling, sexy demos in tech history. Judging from the time I spent with a Pre this week, the phone lives up to most of its considerable promise. The hardware is quite good, but it’s the software–in the form of Palm’s webOS, the long-awaited successor to the groundbreaking-but-obsolete Palm OS–that makes the Pre so special. And the combination of the two is enough to catapult the Pre into a two-phone race with the iPhone 3G. (I suspect that one or more Google Android phones will be in serious competition before long, but the only Android phone to ship in the U.S., T-Mobile’s G1, is behind the iPhone and Pre by a furlong or two.)

Many people will find reasons to avoid the Pre, from its price ($299, or $199 after $100 rebate with two-year contract) to the fact it launches only on the Sprint network (a Verizon version is supposedly about six months away). Still, even if you never buy one, it’s a significant product. The Pre is so solid in so many areas that I expect multiple aspects of its hardware and software niceties to influence and improve competitive products. Maybe even ones from a company in Cupertino named after a piece of fruit.

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Palm Pre’s iTune Sync: Destined for Oblivion?

Posted by Harry McCracken on June 2, 2009 at 10:05 am

You don’t tug on Superman’s cape…
You don’t spit into the wind…
You don’t pull the mask off that old Lone Ranger…
And you don’t use clever workarounds or hacks to do things with Apple products which Apple doesn’t want you to do, because Apple will surely release an update which defeats your clever workaround or hack.

–Jim Croce’s “You Don’t Mess Around With Jim” (minor revision by Harry)  

Palm PreAmong the many interesting features of Palm’s almost-here Pre smartphone is Media Sync, which lets it sync with iTunes on a Windows PC or Mac as if it were an iPod or iPhone. Daring Fireball’s John Gruber and Jon Lech Johsnsen (the uberhacker who reverse-engineered DVD encryption and Apple FairPlay DRM) have been blogging about the new feature. I’m intrigued by their take, and puzzled (so far) by what Palm is up to here.

I think that both John and Jon’s analysis is based on this video from last week’s D conference, in which Palm’s Jon Rubenstein shows the  iTunes synching feature. e specifies that it involves no additional software, and the synching is clearly happening within iTunes, which refers to the Pre as an iPod. Jon (Lech Johansen, not Rubenstein) says that the Pre must be essentially pretending to be some specific iPod model and thereby tricking iTunes into doing the sync, and John agrees, saying it “can’t be legit.”

This analysis is all well-informed and sensible. It’s possible, of course, that it’s wrong–maybe Rubenstein mispoke when he said no additional softwaere was involved, for instance. But for the moment, the Gruber/Johansen take on this is at the very least the most likely scenario.

And if it’s indeed what’s going on, it’s tough to figure out what’s going on in Palm’s head. Reasonable people can debate about whether there’s anything underhanded about one company’s device masquerading as another company’s device to gain access to the second company’s software. Reasonable people can debate about whether Apple has any moral responsibility to permit third-party hardware manufacturers to sync their devices  with iTunes. But it’s all moot: If Apple doesn’t like the Pre’s approach to iTunes synching, and there’s a technical  way for it to stop it, it will, in an upcoming iTunes update. History pretty much proves that. And considering that, it seems pointlessly risky for Palm to do what John and Jon think it’s done: There’s a high chance that anyone who buys a Pre because of this feature will end up disappointed when Apple circumvents it.

(Wild card: Maybe Palm is positive there’s no technical way for Apple to respond to what it’s done. I’m not a USB engineer, but this scenario seems unlikely.)

The odd thing is, it’s possible to write software that peeks int iTunes’ music library and syncs songs back and forth in a way that works quite well: When I owned a Windows Mobile phone, I used The Missing Sync to sync it with iTunes. But such techniques involve the installation of software on a computer, and it’s not iTunes that’s doing the synching. You’re synching with iTunes, not via iTunes. If Palm did this, there’d be no controversy and little chance of Apple striking back, and the Pre would have a neat and useful feature.

Based on the D demo, though, whatever the Pre is doing, it’s something other than that. It’ll be fascinating to get more details once the phone comes out on Saturday, and to see how Apple responds.


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The First Palm Pre Review

Posted by Harry McCracken on May 29, 2009 at 1:39 pm

Palm PreThe Boy Genius Report has seen, touched, and tried a pre-release Palm Pre, and published its findings. It’s a long piece with a bunch of photos, but the Pre has been so thoroughly previewed in so many venues that it doesn’t tell us much we didn’t already know. BGR’s verdict? Uninspiring hardware (the keyboard is said to be too small to be pleasing, and the case kind of plasticky) but sensational operating system (although not much software was on the device).

The Pre hits stores on June 6th, so look for gazillions of reviews shortly.

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